Monthly Archives: October 2020

Renault Attacks Idling Pollution At Schools

I’m currently waiting for my daughter to get out of school. Being Florida, it’s hot as he**. So, everyone else sitting here is running their car.
I prefer to not think about the pollution that is rising up around us and that kids will have to walk through as they get out of school. There are perhaps 7 or 8 Teslas in the pickup area, but that’s nothing compared to the many, many more that are burning gasoline. While it won’t help me, I’m happy to see that Renault is doing something about this problem in the UK.

Despite not being a scorching hot mess, 27% of parents in the UK admit to idling while waiting for their children — men more than 50% likely to do so than women (or more than 50% likely to admit it). As a result, “1 in 3 children in the UK breathe unsafe levels of air pollution,” according to Renault.

Interestingly, in the UK, sitting in a car and idling with the engine running is illegal! Didn’t know that? Don’t worry, neither did 60% of respondents. What is there to do about the idling problem if it’s already illegal? Yep — raise awareness around the problem, the law, and solutions. Hence, Renault has launched the “Be Mindful, Don’t Idle” awareness campaign.

The stakes? According to Renault, “More than 8,500 schools, nurseries and colleges in England, Scotland and Wales are located in areas with dangerously high levels of pollution.”

“The fact that the majority of people don’t realise that idling is illegal just highlights the scale of the problem,” explains Matt Shirley, Senior Manager, Electrification & New Mobility. “Every minute a car is idling it produces enough emissions to fill 150 balloons. It goes without saying, if the 27% of school run journeys stop idling, there would be a significant improvement in the air quality for their children.”

Naturally, the easiest solution to enjoy your air conditioning or heater without causing harmful pollution where your kids are walking around is to go electric. Renault’s awareness campaign may be partly or even mostly altruistic, but it’s also a marketing campaign. Renault is a leader in the electric vehicle market, and the more people see the benefits of an electric car, the more ZOEs it’s going to move.

So far in 2020, the Renault ZOE is the top selling electric vehicle in Europe. Indeed — it’s even outselling the Tesla Model 3 so far this year. We’ll see what happens as the year closes out, but the ZOE is certainly in the running for best selling vehicle of the year even at the end of December.

In the UK, where this awareness campaign is focused, the ZOE also sells well, and plugin vehicle vehicle sales overall have risen to 10% of automobile sales in the market.

Read more: Clean Technica

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Nissan Ariya EV SUV (Image: Nissan)

EVs spell crude’s doom

THE issue of climate change is beginning to impact the ‘crude’ horizon.

Last Tuesday, at its “Battery Day” Tesla unveiled plans to develop an in-house, “tabless” battery. This battery would improve the range and power of its electric cars, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced. It could dramatically reduce costs and lower the cost per kilowatt-hour of Tesla cars significantly. It would allow Tesla to eventually sell electric vehicles for the same price as gasoline-powered ones, Musk emphasised. Many experts agreed, saying it could allow Tesla to lower the price of its cars, making them far more accessible.

Interestingly, while car sales collapsed in Europe owing to the pandemic, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) continued to grow. And this does not defy logic. The purchase prices of EVs in Europe are coming tantalisingly closer to the prices for cars with gasoline or diesel engines.

Government subsidies are largely responsible for this near price parity, cutting more than $10,000 from the final price. Carmakers are offering deals on electric cars to meet stricter European Union regulations on carbon dioxide emissions. In Germany, an electric Renault Zoe can be leased for 139 euros a month, or $164, reports indicate.

The recent advances in batteries are going to make the price gap between the internal combustion engines and EVs still less. A few years ago, the industry was expecting 2025 to be the turning point. Now, this could be earlier.

Nissan Ariya EV SUV (Image: Nissan)
Nissan Ariya EV SUV (Image: Nissan)

This threat to crude consumption is coming from various quarters. Indeed, the slow, yet gradual, switch over to EVs is making a major difference. But other factors are also getting into play. The pandemic is changing life patterns. A greater number of people are opting to work from home. Jet fuel was another area of crude consumption growth. With fewer few people taking flights, jump in jet fuel consumption is also getting into question.

Another possible area of crude consumption was the use of crude as a feedstock to produce petrochemicals. That is also now under clouds. Green, or sustainable, chemistry could undermine Big Oil’s petrochemical ambitions, especially in an increasingly environment-conscious world writes Tsvetana Paraskova in Oilprice.com.

The chemical sector is the largest industrial consumer of both oil and gas, accounting for 15 per cent, or 13 million barrel per day, of total primary demand for oil on a volumetric basis and 9pc of gas, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Chemical sector emissions need to peak in the next few years and decline towards 2030 to stay on track with the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), the IEA says.

With transportation accounting for almost 70pc of total global crude consumption, the emergence of ‘cost-effective’ electric vehicles would significantly dent global crude consumption. It could drastically change the short-term crude horizon. And oil majors are beginning to take note.

British Petroleum has announced increasing investments in low-emission businesses tenfold, to $5 billion a year, while shrinking its oil and gas production by 40pc over the next decade. Eni of Italy, Total of France, Repsol of Spain, and Equinor of Norway have set similar targets. Several of those companies have cut their dividends to invest in new energy.

Dutch oil major Shell is looking to slash as much as 40pc of its upstream oil and gas operations as it is redesigning its business toward a greener portfolio, sources in Shell involved in the costs review told Reuters. Shell is reported to be planning significant restructuring by the end of the year to reflect its net-zero emissions goal for 2050. However, their US counterparts, ExxonMobil and Chevron, for the time being, appear committed to fossil fuels.

Read more: Dawn

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Commentary: Why California’s ban on gas-powered cars isn’t all that radical

Climate change is already doing a lot of damage – and the prohibition on the sale of new fossil-fuel cars is 15 years away.

Banning dealers from selling anything but zero-emission cars from 2035, as California Gov. Gavin Newsom decreed this week, sounds pretty radical on first hearing.

Electric vehicles are still a relatively niche pursuit. Charging them up isn’t always straightforward – especially if you live in an apartment – and battery-powered cars tend to cost more than gasoline-powered equivalents (although that won’t be the case for much longer). Predictably, the Trump administration attacked Newsom’s executive order, and the fossil fuel industry is also unhappy.

However, in view of the seriousness of the climate emergency – something Californians need only look out the window to observe – Newsom isn’t being very radical at all.

The truly eye-catching thing about California’s announcement is that the state will allow the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles, whose emissions contribute to wildfires and heat, for another 15 years. Oil-rich Norway, by contrast, wants to ban cars powered by fossil fuels by as soon as 2025. Britain might bring forward its phase-out date from 2035 to 2030.

Speed is of the essence because climate change is already doing enormous damage. And the key question isn’t when we stop selling combustion-engine vehicles, but when the last one is removed from the roads. Think about it: A gasoline vehicle purchased in 2034, a year before California’s ban comes into force, might continue spewing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for more than a decade after that. Californians will still be able to buy used gas-guzzlers after 2035.

To see why this matters, consider some of the findings of BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook. In 2020, about 3 percent of global car sales will be electric models. By 2025, that will hit 10 percent, rising to 28 percent in 2030 and 58 percent in 2040. Despite this incredible growth, these vehicles will amount to only 8 percent of the 1.4 billion cars on the planet’s roads in 2030 and slightly less than a third in 2040.

OPINION Posted September 26INCREASE FONT SIZEResize Font
Commentary: Why California’s ban on gas-powered cars isn’t all that radical
Climate change is already doing a lot of damage – and the prohibition on the sale of new fossil-fuel cars is 15 years away.

BY CHRIS BRYANTBLOOMBERG OPINION
Sharefacebooktweetredditemailprint2 COMMENTS
Banning dealers from selling anything but zero-emission cars from 2035, as California Gov. Gavin Newsom decreed this week, sounds pretty radical on first hearing.

Electric vehicles are still a relatively niche pursuit. Charging them up isn’t always straightforward – especially if you live in an apartment – and battery-powered cars tend to cost more than gasoline-powered equivalents (although that won’t be the case for much longer). Predictably, the Trump administration attacked Newsom’s executive order, and the fossil fuel industry is also unhappy.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bryant is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies.

However, in view of the seriousness of the climate emergency – something Californians need only look out the window to observe – Newsom isn’t being very radical at all.

The truly eye-catching thing about California’s announcement is that the state will allow the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles, whose emissions contribute to wildfires and heat, for another 15 years.

Oil-rich Norway, by contrast, wants to ban cars powered by fossil fuels by as soon as 2025. Britain might bring forward its phase-out date from 2035 to 2030.

Speed is of the essence because climate change is already doing enormous damage. And the key question isn’t when we stop selling combustion-engine vehicles, but when the last one is removed from the roads. Think about it: A gasoline vehicle purchased in 2034, a year before California’s ban comes into force, might continue spewing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for more than a decade after that. Californians will still be able to buy used gas-guzzlers after 2035.

To see why this matters, consider some of the findings of BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook. In 2020, about 3 percent of global car sales will be electric models. By 2025, that will hit 10 percent, rising to 28 percent in 2030 and 58 percent in 2040. Despite this incredible growth, these vehicles will amount to only 8 percent of the 1.4 billion cars on the planet’s roads in 2030 and slightly less than a third in 2040.

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BNEF forecasts that – after dipping this year because of COVID-related mobility restrictions – emissions from road transportation will keep rising until 2033. While they’ll decline after that, these emissions will still be higher in 2040 than they were in 2019.

Read more: Press Herald

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Tesla Battery Day: Bigger form factor cells, massive cost reductions and elimination of cobalt use

Tesla hosted its Battery Day yesterday in California before a socially-distanced audience all sat in various electric cars from the company’s range and revealed its ambitious plans for more than halving the cost of battery production.

The company has plans to scale up to Terawatt-hour scale of annual production capacity for lithium batteries, which CEO and founder Elon Musk said he was confident could be done by 2030 – and possibly even earlier.

Along the way, it was also announced that Tesla intends to eliminate cobalt use in battery cathodes and reach a level of vertical integration, particularly within North America, that will see raw materials go directly from mine to production line and emerge as the finished article. No doubt many other media outlets and bloggers will focus on the transportation side of things so we have tried to hone in on the aspects of the day’s presentation most relevant to stationary energy storage.

Tesla Energy’s home battery, Powerwall, is seen newly installed in the home of Steven YatesÊ in Monkton, Vermont on Monday, May 2, 2016.

Here’s how Tesla Battery Day went and what was announced:

Stockholders push back on proposed reforms
The livestream of the three-hour event began with more than half an hour of slick footage of Tesla EVs set to smooth electro, techno and house music, with some shots of Tesla solar and battery storage projects, products and of course happy workers and team members thrown in for good measure.

Then, the first part of the day’s event, the company’s annual shareholder meeting, began. Al Prescott, Tesla VP of its legal department hosted that from an outdoor stage in the California parking lot from where the livestream was broadcast.

Before the separate Battery Day event, venture capitalist Steve Jurvetson’s departure from the company’s board was officially confirmed, with Jurvetson to be replaced by Hiro Mizuno, a former head of a $1 trillion Japanese pension fund. Then, the company’s shareholders were invited to vote on seven proposals, including four from other stockholders.

Shareholders rejected all four proposals: the first for Tesla to consider running paid advertising, which it has never done, the second for introducing simple majority voting, the third on the use of mandatory arbitrations for employee disputes – including allegations of racial and gender discrimination at the company’s Gigafactory 2 in upstate New York and the Fremont assembly plant in California – and finally that the company should introduce annual human rights reporting covering its entire value chain.

Allegations on the prevalence of harassment and discrimination and a lack of recourse included “serious allegations of racism and sexism” meant Tesla should introduce a report on the impact of mandatory arbitration, Dr Kristen Hull of shareholder Nia Impact Capital, said.

Terry Collingsworth at International Rights Advocates spoke on behalf of the Sisters of Good Shepherd, New York, who asked that Tesla issue a report to describe board oversight on human rights and human rights due diligence process, including systems to provide meaningful remedies when human rights impacts occur.

Collingsworth alleged that dependence on cobalt mined from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) made Tesla guilty of “not only tolerating child labour,” but also “tolerating the maiming and death of young boys” who work in some of DRC’s artisanal mines. Consumers would have “zero tolerance” of a company exposed as being indifferent to this suffering, the stockholders said. More on that later.

Read more: Energy Storage News

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MG 5 EV (Image: mg.co.uk)

New MG 5 EV 2020 review

The new all-electric MG 5 starts from under £25k and boasts a 214-mile range

Verdict
If you want a cheap electric car then the new MG 5 EV deserves serious consideration. It’s not glamorous, even compared with the electric ZS SUV, but the no-frills approach means it combines solid range with vast amounts of space, strong levels of equipment, and even a turn of pace when you need it for a very enticing price tag. If all you are looking for is as many miles of range as possible for as little money as possible, it makes a strong case for itself.

This week, Tesla boss Elon Musk announced that his company would be able to offer an electric car for a price of £25,000 a few years from now. But Chinese-owned MG can sell you one right now in the form of this: the MG 5 EV.

MG 5 EV (Image: mg.co.uk)
MG 5 EV (Image: mg.co.uk)

It’s MG’s second electric car, sitting alongside the ZS EV but commanding a smaller price tag. Priced from £24,495, rising to £26,995 for the range-topping Exclusive model we’re driving here, the MG 5 is, in effect, a European-market version of the Roewe Ei5. It represents one of the most affordable ways into emissions-free family motoring on sale in Britain today, undercutting key favourites like the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf.

While it offers up a price tag cheaper than those cars, it also brings one key bonus – space. As you can see, the MG 5 EV isn’t a small hatchback, but is instead a decently sized family estate car. Similarly, it doesn’t skimp on range either; a 52.5kWh battery pack means a claimed range of 214 miles under WLTP rules, and a 0-80 per cent recharge will take 50 minutes, thanks to standard 50kW charging support. These are promising figures for the cash.

It also greatly eclipses the 163-mile range of the more expensive ZS EV. More subjectively, it’s not as glamorous or desirable as the brand’s electric SUV. But for buyers prioritising range and value for money, this could well be a new champion.

On a full charge we found the readout claimed 191 miles. However, the switchable drive modes of the MG 5 meant we could eke out more from the cell, with a claimed maximum of 205 miles showing when flicked into Eco mode. This limits the level of performance on offer, but it’s a mode many buyers will default to, given that it still offers more than enough shove to get around.

Read more: AutoExpress

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Captur E-TECH Plug-in (Image: Renault)

First drive: Renault Captur E-Tech

Renault is about to offer the Captur with its latest petrol-electric powertrain. The tech is fascinating, but business users will be just as interested in the 10% BIK rate.

The Captur is already a phenomenally successful product for Renault and it’s easy to see why. Marrying the funky visual attractions and the elevated driving position of an SUV to the easy driving manners of an agile supermini, you would be forgiven for thinking it couldn’t be any more on-trend. Well, if anything, it’s about to become even more ‘street’ as Renault launches a new plug-in hybrid Captur.

By now, most of us are familiar with plug-in hybrids and most of us understand the concept of using a combination of a petrol engine – diesel examples are increasingly rare – and an electric motor to boost a vehicle’s power output and reduce CO2 emissions. To many business users it’s an attractive solution, thanks to the claim of stellar fuel economy figures plus low CO2 outputs, which equate to reduced benefit-in-kind rates.

The Captur’s 10% BIK rating is essentially calculated on its ability to travel up to 30 miles and up to 84mph on electric propulsion alone. Although 10% may not be quite as appealing as the current 0% of pure electric vehicles, such as Renault’s own Zoe, it’s considerably less punitive than the taxation kicking dished out to diesel car drivers.

The biggest advantage plug-in hybrids have over pure electric vehicles is that they are not constrained by battery range alone, as they will continue to run on petrol power once the battery’s power is depleted.

In the Captur’s case, you charge its battery via a 7kW wall-mounted charger – there is no fast charge option – most likely overnight.

Strict adherence to this regime is key because if you forget to charge up you will cop for a double penalty, as not only will you be hauling around the deadweight of a drained battery pack, you will also be sapping energy from the petrol engine as it attempts to re-energise the battery.

Undoubtedly, the trickiest piece of the Captur’s powertrain is its clutchless automatic gearbox, which uses electric motors to synchronise gearchanges. It’s a smart solution and for the most part works pretty seamlessly. However, it is not without its quirks.

Captur E-TECH Plug-in (Image: Renault)
Captur E-TECH Plug-in (Image: Renault)

Because the battery power cannot be allowed to drop below a certain level, as it needs to retain sufficient energy to enable the starter motor to work, including its many stop-start procedures, the petrol engine will occasionally take on a mind of its own, and out of the blue send the revs soaring to generate a re-energising flow of electricity.

We experienced this on two separate occasions. Once at a standstill, when it seemed odd to hear the revs cranked well above idle but not particularly alarming, and also at crawling speeds, where the connection to the engine was seemingly lost to some form of artificial intelligence. Less intrusive are the occasional shudders that accompany some shifts and the odd time where the gears seem reluctant to downshift, leaving the engine to labour up steep inclines.

Compared to the high-tech gearbox the 1.6-litre four-cylinder petrol engine is positively old school. Eschewing a turbocharger and relying purely on fuel injection, it is designed with smoothness and quietness in mind, mainly to minimise the aural and vibration transitions between electric and petrol modes. To this end, it is highly effective, only ever sounding strained when worked excessively hard.

Like most Renaults these days the Captur focuses more on comfort than dynamics. Although there is some audible whine from the electric motor, wind, road and suspension noise are generally well suppressed, while both the steering and the brakes demonstrate a consistent, connected feel.

Read more: Business Car

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ZS EV (Image: MG)

MG expands electric car range as dealers’ sales rocket

MG dealers are about to get their second pure battery electric vehicle to retail, plus a plug-in hybrid, as the brand expects its new car sales in 2020 to exceed 20,000 units.

Its MG ZS SUV B-segment electric car, launched mid-2019 and now the fourth biggest selling electric car in the UK, will be joined in November by the MG5 EV estate car and in October by the MG HS plug-in hybrid

“Electric is now, and MG is electric,” said Daniel Gregorious, head of sales and marketing at MG Motor UK.

To date, 27% of MG’s new car sales this year have been plug-ins, and in 2021 he expects 51% to be plug-in models.

“The key to our success will be bringing affordable, high tech and electric cars to market, all wearing that iconic MG badge.”

ZS EV (Image: MG)
ZS EV (Image: MG)

Sold in China under the Roewe brand, and powered by a 115kW motor coupled to 52.2kWh batteries, the MG5 EV is capable of 214 miles maximum range (WLTP) and will be priced from £24,495 (after the £3,000 Plug-In Car Grant) in Excite trim and, as it gives users a 0% Benefit-in-Kind tax rate currently, or 1% in 2021-22 tax year, MG expects half of the electric estate car’s sales to be in the fleet and business market segments.

A higher specification Exclusive model costs from £26,995 and adds artificial leather upholstery, heated front seats and door mirrors, keyless entry and start, sat-nav and automatic wipers.

Charging with a Type 2 charger at home will take around 8.5 hours, said MG, and fast-chargers will provide 80% of charge within 50 minutes.

MG is promoting the aerodynamics, lower centre of gravity and driving dynamics of the C-segment electric estate car in comparison to a trendier electric SUV, in a bid to counter the UK’s decline in mainstream estate car sales.

“With MG5 EV we’re turned over a new leaf with Europe’s first SW (sportwagon aka estate) EV. With a big boot, a big range and a small price tag, we really believe that MG5 EV is a real breakthrough in terms of value-for-money, practical EVs in the UK.”

With batteries integrated within the chassis, boot space is not compromised. Without dropping the rear seats the boot capacity is 578 litres, about 24% larger than the Nissan Leaf electric car.

Gregorious also highlighted that the much smaller Renault Zoe is the only pure EV that’s cheaper than the MG5 EV.

Read more: AM Online

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2020 Renault Zoe (Image: Renault)

Council switches entire pool car fleet to Renault Zoe EVs

South Lanarkshire Council has taken delivery of 141 Renault Zoe electric superminis, ensuring that more than a quarter (28%) of its small fleet will be fully electric.

The purchase – which represents the biggest-ever Scottish order for Renault’s electric vehicles – will see 104 vehicles used to switch the council’s entire pool car fleet away from the former diesel vehicles.

2020 Renault Zoe (Image: Renault)
The improved Renault Zoe has a longer range and posher interior (Image: Renault)

The remaining 37 Renault Zoes will be deployed across a range of council services including Roads, Housing and Technical and South Lanarkshire Leisure and Culture, supported by their official 245-mile range.

While the deal will cut both emissions and running costs for the council, the hope is that the chance to trial EVs in the real world will also spur employees to switch their own personal vehicles to electric ones.

The council’s vehicles are being funded by a grant of more than £1m from Transport Scotland’s Switched on Fleets Programme and will be charged by existing council charging points, backed by the addition of more chargers in the near future.

Read more: FleetWorld

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BMW i3 120Ah (Image: BMW Group)

THE CARS WITH ONE EYE ON SUSTAINABILITY

Recycling. It’s a word which most people know and understand. In a world faced with imminent climate change, recycling is a way for us to limit our own impact on the earth through reducing waste and turning what we’d usually throw away into something new.

Manufacturers are just as aware of this too. In fact, plenty of car makers are integrating recycled materials into their vehicles. Let’s take a look at some of the best.

BMW I3
BMW’s striking i3 is green from the off, as its fully electric powertrain has far less of an impact on the environment than an equivalent petrol or diesel-powered car. However, it goes further with an interior which majors on sustainability.

Much of the interior is made from kenaf, which is a lightweight, quick-growing material taken from the mallow plant. The dashboard is crafted from eucalyptus, while the seats are woven from sustainable wool. Check out i3 models for sale here.

BMW i3 120Ah (Image: BMW Group)
BMW i3 120Ah (Image: BMW Group)

POLESTAR 2
Polestar’s new 2 is a car which has been brought in to take the fight to Tesla in the electric car stakes. However, it hasn’t lost track of the end goal – to reduce environmental impact – which is why you’ll find eco-friendly techniques and materials used throughout its construction.

It uses natural fibre composites to reduce the car’s overall use of plastic while at the same time driving down weight. In addition, the seats themselves are made from recycled plastic bottles, the upholstery is entirely vegan-friendly and the carpets are made from old fishing nets too. Don’t worry – they’ve been cleaned first.

HYUNDAI IONIQ ELECTRIC
Hyundai’s Ioniq was somewhat of a trendsetter from the off, as it was one of the first cars to be offered with three powertrains – regular hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric. However, it’s just as cutting edge in other areas too.

Hyundai used recycled plastic mixed with powdered wood and volcanic stone to lower the weight of the interior plastics by an incredible 20 per cent.

Read more: motors.co.uk

VW e-Golf (Image: Volkswagen.co.uk)

The Age of Electric Cars Is Dawning Ahead of Schedule

Battery prices are dropping faster than expected. Analysts are moving up projections of when an electric vehicle won’t need government incentives to be cheaper than a gasoline model.

FRANKFURT — An electric Volkswagen ID.3 for the same price as a Golf. A Tesla Model 3 that costs as much as a BMW 3 Series. A Renault Zoe electric subcompact whose monthly lease payment might equal a nice dinner for two in Paris.

As car sales collapsed in Europe because of the pandemic, one category grew rapidly: electric vehicles. One reason is that purchase prices in Europe are coming tantalizingly close to the prices for cars with gasoline or diesel engines.

At the moment this near parity is possible only with government subsidies that, depending on the country, can cut more than $10,000 from the final price. Carmakers are offering deals on electric cars to meet stricter European Union regulations on carbon dioxide emissions. In Germany, an electric Renault Zoe can be leased for 139 euros a month, or $164.

Electric vehicles are not yet as popular in the United States, largely because government incentives are less generous. Battery-powered cars account for about 2 percent of new car sales in America, while in Europe the market share is approaching 5 percent. Including hybrids, the share rises to nearly 9 percent in Europe, according to Matthias Schmidt, an independent analyst in Berlin.

As electric cars become more mainstream, the automobile industry is rapidly approaching the tipping point when, even without subsidies, it will be as cheap, and maybe cheaper, to own a plug-in vehicle than one that burns fossil fuels. The carmaker that reaches price parity first may be positioned to dominate the segment.

VW e-Golf (Image: Volkswagen.co.uk)
VW e-Golf (Image: Volkswagen.co.uk)

A few years ago, industry experts expected 2025 would be the turning point. But technology is advancing faster than expected, and could be poised for a quantum leap. Elon Musk is expected to announce a breakthrough at Tesla’s “Battery Day” event on Tuesday that would allow electric cars to travel significantly farther without adding weight.

The balance of power in the auto industry may depend on which carmaker, electronics company or start-up succeeds in squeezing the most power per pound into a battery, what’s known as energy density. A battery with high energy density is inherently cheaper because it requires fewer raw materials and less weight to deliver the same range.

“We’re seeing energy density increase faster than ever before,” said Milan Thakore, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultant which recently pushed its prediction of the tipping point ahead by a year, to 2024.

Some industry experts are even more bullish. Hui Zhang, managing director in Germany of NIO, a Chinese electric carmaker with global ambitions, said he thought parity could be achieved in 2023.

Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University who closely follows the industry, is more cautious. But he said: “We are already on a very accelerated timeline. If you asked anyone in 2010 whether we would have price parity by 2025, they would have said that was impossible.”

This transition will probably arrive at different times for different segments of the market. High-end electric vehicles are pretty close to parity already. The Tesla Model 3 and the gas-powered BMW 3 Series both sell for about $41,000 in the United States.

A Tesla may even be cheaper to own than a BMW because it never needs oil changes or new spark plugs and electricity is cheaper, per mile, than gasoline. Which car a customer chooses is more a matter of preference, particularly whether an owner is willing to trade the convenience of gas stations for charging points that take more time. (On the other hand, owners can also charge their Teslas at home.)

Consumers tend to focus on sticker prices, and it will take longer before unsubsidized electric cars cost as little to drive off a dealer’s lot as an economy car.

Read more: The New York Times

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