British roads could stand on the verge of a revolution in personal transport, according to a new study.

With the UK government becoming the latest to name 2040 as the cut-off point for petrol and diesel fuelled transport, manufacturers are finally beginning to prioritise the next generation of electronic vehicles (EVs), presenting new challenges for companies, governments, and drivers themselves.

With the EU collectively in danger of failing to meet various climate targets at present, a number of the community’s largest member states have announced measures aimed at weaning citizens off the direct consumption of petrol and diesel. Following a ban on petrol and diesel fuelled cars in France recently being scheduled for 2040, the United Kingdom has followed suit.

The governmental pushes away from petrol and diesel mean that large car producers like Volvo have an ultimatum to work toward – create electronic vehicles worth consumers’ whiles, or face becoming by-standers in the future automotive market. Change in public perception had previously pushed large manufacturers, most notably Toyota with their infamous Prius hybrid line, putting their money and brand influence behind partially electronic vehicles, however, with greater public awareness around the environmental impact of petrol and diesel, a growing variety of electric vehicles have come to the fore, enabling governments to put their trust in the industry to continue to profit in spite of their intervention.

However, while the market is moving steadily toward electrified transport, the uptake of electric vehicles could be double government estimates as early as 2020, according to new research by Baringa Partners. Researchers at the consulting firm, who called on policy makers to address issues around the integration of potentially soaring levels of EVs into the energy system, found that 18% of people said they would consider buying an electric vehicle for their next car, well above the governmental projection of a mere 9% of the UK’s road fleet by 2020.

Read more: Consultancy UK

It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,”

lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics.

Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead (see Briefing). In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better.

The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today.

Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

Read more: The Economist

Everything you need to know about EVs – and our top ten EV choices

Over 67,000 alternatively-fuelled vehicles – including full electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars – have been sold in the UK so far in 2017. Not bad for what’s still regarded as a niche market.

Cars like the BMW i3, Nissan LEAF and Renault Zoe have shown that there are no space compromises demanded by electric cars. And, especially for drivers who spend most of their time in towns and cities, electrified cars save can save a great deal of money on fuel and road taxes relative to petrol and diesel rivals.

Charging an electric car is certainly much cheaper than filling up a petrol or diesel car. Based on an electricity cost of 10p per kWh, it will cost just £3 to fully power up a Nissan LEAF. A quick charge on the motorway will take the batteries up to 80% of their total capacity for about £6. Even ‘range anxiety’ is becoming less of a problem, with the latest-generation electric cars capable of some 150 real-world miles on a single charge.

Buying an electrified car

It’s a fact that electric and plug-in hybrid cars cost more new than conventionally-engined cars, but government grants will narrow that price gap. Cars emitting under 50g/km of CO2 and able to run for at least 70 miles just on electric power qualify for a £4500 grant. One that will do between 10 and 69 miles on electric power will get a £2500 grant. Then there are the incentives of around £2000 that car makers like BMW and Mercedes are offering for ‘scrappage’ trade-ins on older diesel cars.

But which type of electric car should you buy? A welter of jargon has sprung up to confuse buyers, so let’s try and untangle that.

Alternatively-fuelled vehicle: any car that doesn’t solely rely on a conventional petrol or diesel engine.

EV: full EVs (or electric vehicles) run only on electric power, like the Nissan LEAF. Rather than a ‘normal’ engine, they are driven by a battery-powered electric motor charged from a mains power source. These EVs escape road tax and the London congestion charge.

Read more: Evening Standard