Tesla currently has a very clear technological lead over its competitors. One teardown in 2020 estimated it to be six years ahead of Toyota and VW. There seems no stopping the share price of the company either. In fact, Tesla doesn’t just have a higher market cap than Toyota, it’s nearly four times as much now and recently passed Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company. But although Tesla is awash with investor cash and producing cars that have significantly more range and performance than other vendors, there are signs already that its market lead is eroding, and competitors are starting to catch up.

One of the first indications is just how well Volkswagen is already doing with its new ID.3 compact car in Europe. It was the best-selling EV in Europe in October. The Tesla Model 3 is still way ahead as the best-selling EV globally and has now sold more units than the Nissan Leaf, despite the latter just reaching its tenth anniversary where the Model 3 isn’t even four yet. But in Europe in November 2020 the Renault Zoe came top, with the ID.3 second and the Hyundai Kona Electric third. The Tesla Model 3 was fourth, and the Model S and X weren’t even in the top 20, whereas the technically inferior Audi e-tron was. This is causing some concern with European investors.

Part of the problem is that Tesla is still targeting a relatively premium end of the EV market, with its cheapest vehicles in the USA still around the $40k mark, and more expensive in Europe. To hit much higher volumes, it sorely needs a smaller, cheaper car for greater mass market appeal. The Model Y is in the crossover / SUV format, which is more popular than “mid-sized sedans” like the Model 3. But it’s no cheaper and still won’t compete in the same segment as the Renault Zoe, VW ID.3 or Hyundai Kona.

Tesla is rumored to be gearing up to build a new car in China already, which some have mooted could be the much-anticipated $25,000 Model 2. But where a $25,000 car sounds like decent value in the West, there are already plenty of cars on sale in China for less than this, and not just tiny urban-only vehicles like the infamous Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV. The BYD e2 is close to $20,000 before any subsidies, yet still offers a very respectable 190 miles of NEDC range.

Last week, I highlighted some of the Chinese cars that we are likely to be seeing come out of China into the US and European markets in 2021 – a couple of which have arrived already like the Polestar 2 and MG5 EV. These will not only be competitively priced but extremely well specified as well. There’s a good reason for Chinese EVs to be looked upon as the biggest competitor in the market, too. The huge range of increasingly capable EV models is there to fulfil a local need. A big explosion in the size of the Chinese EV market is expected in 2021, which will become larger than the rest of the world put together by unit volume, if not value.

Whatever the value of Tesla as a company, it could have had its day in the sun already as biggest EV gorilla in the room. Green and high technology hedge fund Snow Bull Capital has made some very telling predictions about the future of EV sales. In 2020, Tesla just fell short of selling its target of half a million cars, which is incredible considering the youth of the company. Snow Bull expects its sales to peak at just under 7 million cars by 2031. But then it will decline, and more tellingly, the estimate is that Tesla’s market share of EVs has already peaked in 2020 at around 23% and will reduce to 8% by 2040, as other vendors pick up volume.

I already argued a month ago that 2020 was the year EVs came of age, and lots of big players are taking notice. Apple appears to have resuscitated its plans for an autonomous EV, Sony has teased some more details and videos of its Vision-S concept, and NIO recently launched its ET7, which could really take the battle to Tesla thanks to a 150kWh solid-state battery that allegedly will provide over 1,000km (620 miles) of NEDC range. Then there’s the Lucid Air, due to arrive this year, which could be a Tesla Model S killer, particularly as its CTO was formerly the chief engineer at Tesla behind the Model S.

One of the many areas where Tesla currently has a very clear lead over the competition is battery technology and the efficiency it can extract from its power packs. As an example, the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus manages 267 miles out of a 54kWh battery, whereas the VW ID.3 requires 58kWh to go 263 miles – and the ID.3 is over 100kg lighter, too. At Tesla’s Battery Day last year, the company announced a host of technological developments, but in particular a new cell type called 4680, which will see limited initial delivery in the Tesla Model S Plaid this year.

Although batteries are becoming inexorably cheaper, the 4680 will accelerate that greatly once it enters mass production. The battery cost of $100 per kWh has long been considered the magical point where EVs start being cheaper than internal combustion engines. Tesla’s current Panasonic 2170 cell technology isn’t expected to hit that point until 2022/23, and being new tech, the 4680 will take a bit longer. By 2024 it will significantly undercut the 2170 per kWh.

Read more: Forbes

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The last year has been surprisingly positive for EVs. But a lot of cars that were due to be released in 2020 have slipped to next year. There are also new technologies looming in 2021 that will shift the EV market still further in the right direction. Here are some of the most significant things to watch out for in the world of electric cars in 2021.

Tesla Berlin Gigafactory And European Model Y
Just when it looked like the Model 3 would be the car that took Tesla into the mainstream, the Model Y arrived, with even greater success. But we still can’t get our hands on it in Europe, and it’s not likely to arrive until the end of 2021 or even 2022. A key factor in its delivery will be the Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin, which is due to come online in July 2021. This development has encountered numerous hiccups along the way, including some about its effect on wildlife, unexploded WWII bombs, and soil composition requiring a change of foundation type with new planning permission.

But when Giga Berlin comes online it will aim to build a quarter million cars a year in its first phase, and then onwards to three times that. The factory will produce batteries, battery packs and Tesla Model Y final assembly. According to announcements made at the Tesla Battery Day in September, the Model Y will be built a bit differently in Berlin, too. It will be made from a small number of very large metal cast parts – maybe just two for the main frame – and will have batteries that are structurally integrated to save on excess structure while increasing chassis stiffness. So the European Model Y, when it does arrive, could be even better than the one now on sale in the USA.

Rimac C_Two
There are several electric hypercars imminent – the Lotus Evija and Pininfarina Battista both look amazing, and there’s Tesla’s new Roadster too. But the Croatian Rimac C_Two, if it delivers on its promises, will be the one to beat. Rimac is boasting a top speed of 258mph and 0-60mph in 1.85 seconds from the C_Two’s 1,900hp motor. These figures are ahead of the competition and could mean the C_Two will even give fossil-fueled hypercars like the Bugatti Chiron something to think about, particularly in a drag race.

Tesla Model S Plaid
The Rimac C_Two will show just what is possible now with EVs, but at a starting price of €2 million ($2.45 million), few will have the chance to try it. More mainstream – if you call $132,990 affordable – will be the Tesla Model S Plaid, slated for late 2021. Slotting in above the Performance version of the S, the Plaid promises astonishing acceleration of less than two seconds to 60mph, a top speed of 200mph, and perhaps even more significantly, a range of over 520 miles on a single charge. The latter is likely to be the result of a larger 120kWh battery (the current model has 100kWh) allied with some of the new technologies announced at Battery Day 2020. Once the Plaid arrives, it should be the fastest accelerating production car on the market. And it’s still a hatchback with plenty of room for four adults.

Solid State Batteries
As Tesla’s emphasis on battery announcements above other areas indicates, this is the technology that is most significant for EV development. One of the cornerstones of Tesla’s success has been its battery production deals, particularly with Panasonic, and now the company is aiming to be a big manufacturer itself. But Toyota and VW might have an answer waiting in the wings in the shape of solid-state technology. Because it doesn’t use liquid electrolytes, solid-state battery technology is safer, charges faster, holds more power and lasts longer than traditional lithium ion battery designs.

Read more: Forbes

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Washington, DC (CNN)Tesla’s fortunes have made quite a journey since April 2018, when CEO Elon Musk posted a photo on Twitter of himself apparently asleep, lying on a Model 3, holding a ragged cardboard sign that read “Bankwupt!”

“There are many chapters of bankruptcy and, as critics so rightly pointed out, Tesla has them *all*” Musk tweeted, in an apparent April Fools Joke.

But at the time, Tesla’s finances were nothing to laugh about. Tesla came within about a month of bankruptcy when bringing the Model 3 to mass production, Musk said last month.

Tesla persevered through the dark stretch and begin reporting a string of profitable quarters in 2019, even ending the year with a slight profit. Tesla’s 2020 on its own has been a roller coaster. Its stock began to surge in early 2020, before plummeting to its low for the year on March 18, as the pandemic hit and the world’s economy unraveled.

On the same day that Tesla’s stock bottomed in March, Nio, a Chinese electric vehicle company, warned for the second time in three months that it was running out of cash to operate in the future. It had just lost $1.6 billion in 2019.

But those low moments appear to be forgotten as the stock prices of Tesla and Nio have sky-rocketed. Tesla became the world’s most valuable automaker this summer, and is now worth more than Toyota, VW, Daimler, Ford, GM and Honda combined. Tesla’s stock has surged more than 600% this year even as it sold about 1% of the vehicles those automakers sold in 2019.

And Nio’s stock rallied this summer, too. It’s grown roughly 1200% this year, and it is now worth nearly as much as General Motors.

Electric vehicle experts say that excitement and energy around the industry hit a new peak in 2020. The stock prices and fundraising fortunes of electric vehicle companies worldwide have thrived in stark contrast to businesses that have generally stumbled through 2020’s pandemic.

“People are betting that this is a new soda pop market, and Tesla represents Coca-Cola, the dominant name brand,” said Reilly Brennan, a venture capitalist at Trucks VC, which invests in transportation startups.

Some view the electric vehicle excitement as overzealous and resembling a mania, as unproven and unprofitable companies have enjoyed soaring stock prices and raised huge sums of cash.
Electric vehicle companies have raised more than $10 billion this year in fundraising rounds, initial public offerings, and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which offer companies an alternative way to go public by merging with an existing company, and which some investors say is an easy way for flawed companies to go public and avoid the scrutiny of a traditional initial public offering.

Read more: CNN BUSINESS

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