It may not seem like it now, but we may now be living in a world where sales of conventional passenger cars have already peaked, a development that will have widespread implications not just for the automotive sector but also oil and gas companies and metals and mining groups.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are set to make up more than half of global passenger car sales by 2040 and completely dominate the bus market according to new research.
Sales of diesel and gasoline vehicles will continue to decline, according to BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019.
The report shows that electrics will take up 57% of the global passenger car sales by 2040, with electric buses dominating their sector, holding 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date.
Electric models will also make up 56% of light commercial vehicle sales – vans and light trucks in Europe, the US and China within the next two decades, and 31% of the medium commercial market. However, heavy trucks will be a harder nut for electric technology to crack because of their weight, but electric heavy trucks will still comprise almost a fifth of the market, although these will be mostly limited to shorter routes.
Conventional heavy trucks will, however face competition from other alternative fuels such as natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.
Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF, commented: “Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport. Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport. We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”
Read more: Forbes