Simple calculation[s] as to the impact on electricity demand as we progressively switch over to electric cars.
National Grid estimates up to 7% increase in electricity demand by 2040 for EVs
There are around 30 million cars on the road today [1]. National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios 2016 presents 4 scenarios – in the most ambitious ‘Gone Green’ scenario there are 9.7 million electric vehicles (EV) on the roads in 2040 using an extra 24 TWh/year. Relative to current electricity demand that is an increase of 7%[2].
But the impact on peak demand will be minor, if drivers respond to time of use pricing.
However, this demand is highly unlikely to be spread evenly through the day and year. Firstly, people tend to drive more in the summer, presumably because it is considerably more pleasant than driving in the winter [3]. Fortunately our peak electricity demand is in the winter so this helps to even out the load.
Secondly, assuming time of use pricing is widely adopted drivers will try quite hard to charge their vehicles at times of the day when the electricity is cheap. Most people will have quite a lot of flexibility and during the peak time a lot of drivers are on the road anyway.
This means electric car charging will increase non-peak demand much more than peak. The chart below shows a typical January day. If electric car charging is spread over non-peak times it will start to fill in the yellow area but not impact on the peak demand. 24 TWh/year is 66 GWh/day so it could fill in just over a quarter of the yellow area.
A typical day’s UK electricity demand in January
If all cars were electric there would be more impact on peak demand
However, 66 TWh/day is from only 9.7 million electric vehicles. If we replaced all 30 million cars, it would be nearer 200 GWh/day. This does still fit into the yellow area – just – but it would be quite a challenge to ensure that there was no ‘leakage’ and it did not impact on the winter peak at all.
A new scientific analysis finds that the Earth’s oceans are rising nearly three times as rapidly as they were throughout most of the 20th century, one of the strongest indications yet that a much feared trend of not just sea level rise, but its acceleration, is now underway.
Severe Flooding, Against a Background of Wind Turbines (Image: T. Larkum)
“We have a much stronger acceleration in sea level rise than formerly thought,”
said Sönke Dangendorf, a researcher with the University of Siegen in Germany who led the study along with scientists at institutions in Spain, France, Norway and the Netherlands.
Their paper, just out in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, isn’t the first to find that the rate of rising seas is itself increasing — but it finds a bigger rate of increase than in past studies. The new paper concludes that before 1990, oceans were rising at about 1.1 millimeters per year, or just 0.43 inches per decade. From 1993 through 2012, though, it finds that they rose at 3.1 millimeters per year, or 1.22 inches per decade.
The cause, said Dangendorf, is that sea level rise throughout much of the 20th century was driven by the melting of land-based glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms, but sea level rise in the 21st century has now, on top of that, added in major contributions from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
“The sea level rise is now three times as fast as before 1990,”
Dangendorf said.
Studying the changing rate of sea level rise is complicated by the fact that scientists only have a precise satellite record of its rate going back to the early 1990s. Before that, the records rely on tide gauges spread around the world in various locations.
But sea level rise varies widely in different places, due to the rising and sinking of land, large-scale gravitational effects on the waters of the globe and other local factors.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, alternative fuel vehicles (AFV’s) in the Europe Union are off to a very strong start in the first quarter of this year, increasing their numbers sold by 37.6% to 212,945 vehicles.
Renault ZOE ZE40
Hybrid vehicles (HEV) showed the biggest growth with 61.2% versus the same period last year, now counting 111,006 units. Electrically chargeable vehicles (ECV = BEV and plug-in hybrids) grew with 29.9% from 36,322 units sold in Q1, 2016 to 47,196 units in Q1, 2017. This includes 49% growth for “battery-only” (BEV’s) to 24,592 units sold and 13% growth for the plug-in hybrids (21,644 units). The U.S. market showed a similar growth of 49% for electric car sales to 40,700 units sold in the first quarter according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The American car market is about 16% larger.
All the major markets in the EU added many new AFV registrations over the first three months. Spain showed the largest increase (+87.4%) over the first quarter of 2017 followed by Germany (+67.5%), the UK (+29.9%), France (+24.8%) and Italy (17.2$). The growth in Italy is due in large part to the recovery in LPG-fuelled (natural gas) cars, but for the other markets, the growth is mostly the result of strong sales in electrically chargeable vehicles (ECV’s or BEV’s) and hybrid-electric (plug-in hybrids).
New passenger car registrations by alternative fuel type in the European Union during the first quarter of 2017.
Looking at electric- or battery-only car sales in Europe reported by the European Alternative Fuels Observatory, we see that the improved Renault Zoe is the number one seller by far, followed by the Nissan Leaf, BMW i3, Tesla Model S and X and the others.
In a “green” effort, the Metropolitan Police Department will start by transitioning 250 of them to hydrogen and electric cars. The new vehicles will be put in place over the course of the next 12 months.
“The response from police drivers to the BMW i3 has been very positive. It’s actually a very quick car.”
Included in the initial plan is hydrogen fuel cell cars, specifically for emergency response vehicles, 30 plug-in hybrids for responding to “999” calls, additional larger vehicles (vans) for crime scenes, and 1o vehicles for Royalty protection officers.
The hope is that at least half of the police force is driving electric cars by next year. This is all part of a multi-million program which includes replacing about 700 vehicles. Monies are also allocated for infrastructure, and the capital area will get five hydrogen chargers.
The organization has looked into the BMW i3 and the Toyota Mirai as viable options. Hydrogen scooters are a possibility for specific patrol routes. At this point, officials aren’t ruling out any automakers or vehicles, as long as they are “clean.” Talks have included vehicles from Ford, Nissan, Mercedes, Renault, and Volkswagen, among others. All vehicle types are also being considered, from mopeds, to cars, and vans. The chief of police, Bernard Hogan-Howe, reportedly spoke personally with Elon Musk about the concept of using Tesla vehicles for “front line” operations.
Trials are already underway and more are planned. The BMW i3 REX has been successful in testing, specifically due to its acceleration. Hydrogen scooters manufactured by Suzuki are also being tested. Jiggs Bharij, the head of the Metropolitan Police fleet services, said:
“The response from police drivers to the BMW i3 has been very positive. It’s actually a very quick car.”
This is all comforting to residents due to the poor air quality in London. Many people have threatened to leave the area if changes aren’t initiated. Sian Berry, a member of the London Assembly Green Party concluded:
“A lot of new and positive ideas are being trailed and considered by the Met here … But what we need from them is a firm deadline for getting all diesel police vehicles off the road. Every organisation with a fleet in London needs to be making plans for this to happen as soon as possible, and this needs to start with the Mayor’s own bodies, including TfL and the Met.”
The sound made by 100 tonnes of steel and carbon fibre rotating 400 feet overhead is surprisingly understated. Each whoosh of the 260 foot blades spans an area the size of the London Eye and generates enough electricity to power the average British home for 24 hours.
Onshore Wind Farm (Image: T. Larkum)
There are 32 of these 8MW turbines in the second phase of Dong Energy’s Burbo Bank wind farm spinning off the Merseyside coast.
They are the most powerful ever, dotting an area the size of almost 6,000 football pitches within the Irish Sea, each one a beacon of Britain’s global dominance in the booming offshore wind industry.
Benj Sykes, the UK boss for Dong Energy’s wind power business, predicts he may be cutting the ribbon on turbines with double this power capacity by 2024.
“If you wind the clock back four or five years, this scale of technology was considered very ambitious. Now, you can see them in reality, commercially deployed. It’s very difficult to say where we will ultimately get to,”
he says.
Wind turbines have already more than doubled their power capacity since Dong Energy constructed the first phase of Burbo Bank in 2007 with 3.7MW structures. By the mid-2020s turbines may double again and a capacity of 15MW could be spinning in Europe’s waters.
As the efficiency and power potential of each turbine increases, costs keep falling.
Research from Frost & Sullivan finds that the global PHEV market is estimated to reach about 3.7 million units by 2025 with 4.8 million light vehicles in an optimistic scenario and 2.9 million light vehicles in a conservative scenario.
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Concept-s
The reasons behind such growth include the imminent launch of 100 new models, favourable incentives, emission target compliance, and long battery ranges.
However, factors that may impede PHEV adoption include the phasing out of electric vehicle incentives, long-range battery electric vehicles, emergence of 48V mild hybrids, and the complexity of having two powertrains in a single vehicle.
“The stringent emission norms of 95 g CO2/km can only be met by PHEV technology, while EV battery technology evolves to overcome limitations. PHEVs have a better market than BEVs due to uncertainty in charging infrastructure,”
said Frost & Sullivan Intelligent Mobility Research Analyst Pooja Bethi.
“Owing to their ability to provide internal combustion engines and EV advantages, the PHEV market is set for high demand and growth.”
Dedicated EV platforms like the Volkswagen (VW) MQB, Mercedes-Benz EVA, and BMW FSAR are major drivers, pushing PHEV growth.
The introduction of a new longer-range Renault ZOE 40 Z.E. with 41 kWh battery and 300 km (186 miles) of real world range has translated into “higher highs” being set for sale…until this month.
April disappointed with just around 1,690 ZOE deliveries (a drop of 14.5% year-over-year).
In general, overall Renault electric car – mostly relied on ZOE – also decreased to 1,931 (down 18%).
Thankfully, sources indicate that April’s hiccup was not demand-related, but rather build-related.
And while we don’t ever wish for production flaws, or recalls, deliveries during the month where muted thanks to a defective part installed on cars produced before April 19th.
The repair (to do with locking the vehicle in parking mode using the handbrake) apparently isn’t the most simple fix, reportedly taking from 6-8 hours to rectify, and the company says it will likely take until the end of June to work all the issues out of the system.
New vehicles now coming of Renault’s Flins assembly line are not effected, but it may take another month to see sales rebound and return to previous trajectories.
With that said, and after four months, Renault has still sold nearly 12,000 electric cars (excluding Twizy), which is 29% more than year ago.
AS MUCH as half the Great Barrier Reef may have died in the back-to-back bleachings over the past two years.
Bleaching on a coral reef in Great Barrier Reef. Picture: ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies/AFP
But the head of the authority in charge of the reef says the actual extent of damage is tricky to calculate because some parts are growing well.
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority believes about 30 per cent of coral, in the reef’s northern part, died last year in bleaching caused by warmer ocean waters, chairman Russell Reichelt told a Senate committee on Monday.
Surveys after this year’s bleaching are still being done but initial observations suggest 20 per cent of coral — mainly in the central area of the 344,000 sq km reef — is dead.
“Don’t think of these figures as the net amount of coral on the Barrier Reef because there are quite big movements upwards as well as downward,”
Dr Reichelt told the senators at an estimates hearing in Canberra.
The southern part of the reef had grown by about 40 per cent in recent years because it hadn’t been hit by cyclones or bleaching — but it was likely it would suffer from those in the future.
A diver examines bleaching on a coral reef on Orpheus Island. Picture: Greg Torda/AFPSource:AFP
Dr Reichelt said the bigger picture question was the coral’s resilience in the face of bleachings, tropical storms and other threats such as the crown of thorns invasions.
“It depends on the frequency of these major impacts and the concern is the frequency could well be increasing and the recovery time will be insufficient,”
he said.
“If the recovery time is very short, there won’t be a lot of coral.”
As part of the UK’s ambitions to become a leading hub for the development of electric vehicles (EVs), Britain’s biggest carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and the UK government have announced plans for the establishment of the core UK hub for EV battery production and development.
Joined by academics and business leaders for the announcement on Tuesday, the central UK players aim to create the National Battery Prototyping Centre (NBPC) in Coventry, which will become the home for EV development and testing in the UK.
UK automotive aims for the national test centre acting as a catapult for large-scale battery production at the historic centre of the UK auto industry. The city of Coventry is already home to the main London Taxi Company EV factory and major JLR research facilities at Warwick University. It also forms part of the key connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) cluster in the country, which stretches from Birmingham and Oxford to London.
JLR CEO Ralf Speth said the founding of the national battery centre would help JLR to commit to building electric vehicles in the UK, as is wishes to do. Its all-electric I-PACE SUV, which is set to beat rivals to market launching in 2018, will be made in Austria, and JLR has also gone overseas to Slovakia for a new production plant for its conventional vehicles. Speth says that in order for it to springboard major production in the UK, it requires considerable improvements to UK-based capabilities, including in pilot testing, support from science (often through universities) and in the UK’s energy supply (with UK energy being some of the most expensive in the world). At least in the first two areas, the UK government now looks set to deliver.
[The NY Times] went to Antarctica to understand how changes to its vast ice sheet might affect the world.
Ice sheets flow downhill, seemingly in slow motion. Mountains funnel the ice into glaciers. And ice flowing from the land into the sea can form a floating ice shelf.
Glaciers in certain areas have been undercut by warmer ocean waters, and the flow of ice is getting faster and faster.
The acceleration is making some scientists fear that Antarctica’s ice sheet may have entered the early stages of an unstoppable disintegration.
Because the collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheet could raise the sea level dramatically, the continued existence of the world’s great coastal cities — Miami, New York, Shanghai and many more — is tied to Antarctica’s fate.
Four New York Times journalists joined a Columbia University team in Antarctica late last year to fly across the world’s largest chunk of floating ice in an American military cargo plane loaded with the latest scientific gear.
Inside the cargo hold, an engineer with a shock of white hair directed younger scientists as they threw switches. Gravity meters jumped to life. Radar pulses and laser beams fired toward the ice below.
On computer screens inside the plane, in ghostly traces of data, the broad white surface of the Ross Ice Shelf began to yield the secrets hiding beneath.
“We are 9,000 miles from New York. But we are connected by the ocean.”
said the white-haired engineer, Nicholas Frearson of Columbia.
Nicholas Frearson, at left, in the cargo hold of an LC-130 Hercules.
A rapid disintegration of Antarctica might, in the worst case, cause the sea to rise so fast that tens of millions of coastal refugees would have to flee inland, potentially straining societies to the breaking point. Climate scientists used to regard that scenario as fit only for Hollywood disaster scripts. But these days, they cannot rule it out with any great confidence.
Yet as they try to determine how serious the situation is, the scientists confront a frustrating lack of information.
Recent computer forecasts suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high level, parts of Antarctica could break up rapidly, causing the ocean to rise six feet or more by the end of this century. That is double the maximum increase that an international climate panel projected only four years ago.
