Simple calculation[s] as to the impact on electricity demand as we progressively switch over to electric cars.
National Grid estimates up to 7% increase in electricity demand by 2040 for EVs
There are around 30 million cars on the road today . National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios 2016 presents 4 scenarios – in the most ambitious ‘Gone Green’ scenario there are 9.7 million electric vehicles (EV) on the roads in 2040 using an extra 24 TWh/year. Relative to current electricity demand that is an increase of 7%.
But the impact on peak demand will be minor, if drivers respond to time of use pricing.
However, this demand is highly unlikely to be spread evenly through the day and year. Firstly, people tend to drive more in the summer, presumably because it is considerably more pleasant than driving in the winter . Fortunately our peak electricity demand is in the winter so this helps to even out the load.
Secondly, assuming time of use pricing is widely adopted drivers will try quite hard to charge their vehicles at times of the day when the electricity is cheap. Most people will have quite a lot of flexibility and during the peak time a lot of drivers are on the road anyway.