Global electric-vehicle sales will grow 50% or more next year, while sales of internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to grow 2% to 5%.

That’s the view of analysts at Morgan Stanley, who in a note to clients on Friday also predicted that global EV penetration would top 4%, rising to 31% by 2030.

The year 2021 “is shaping up to be a critical year for EV adoption and (internal combustion engine) de-adoption that will dictate the pace of multiple expansion, contraction, consolidation and proliferation” among the stocks, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in the note.

Investor interest in electric-vehicle and adjacent stocks continued unabated this week, as exemplified by Tesla Inc. TSLA, +5.96% closing the books on $5 billion worth of shares in just one day.

In other news this week:

Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimated that Tesla has a $20 billion “war chest” to fund expansion plans in 2021, which include two factories going up in Germany and in Texas and new vehicles such as the Cybertruck, its pickup truck.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk made waves this week. Speaking at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council annual event, Musk confirmed he has moved to Texas, where his company is building a factory. He took jabs at California and Silicon Valley, which influence in the world he called “too much.”
Nio Inc. late Thursday announced that it plans to sell at least 60 million American depositary shares, with an additional 9 million shares available to underwriters. Nio stock dropped more than 4% in after-hours trading following the announcement, and on Friday dropped nearly 7%.

Nio ADRs have gained nearly 950% this year, compared with gains of around 13% for the S&P 500 index. SPX, -0.35%

Nio’s and Tesla’s moves followed XPeng Inc., which said Monday it planned to sell 40 million ADRs. Li Auto Inc. announced last week its own plan to sell 47 million new ADRs. Both stocks struggled in the wake of those announcements.
Despite the momentary dips amid stock offerings, EV stocks are enjoying a 2020 stock surge that is more widespread than Nio’s jaw-dropping 2020 gains. Tesla is up 625% this year, while XPeng is up more than 111% and Li Auto around 100%.

Electric vehicle company Electric Last Mile Inc. has agreed to go public via a merger with a blank-check company, or special purpose acquisition corporation, Forum Merger III Corp. FIII, +2.73%
The deal would value Last Mile at about $1.4 billion, and once it closes, likely in the first quarter, the combined company will be renamed Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc. and trade on Nasdaq under the ticker “ELMS.” The company plans to launch electric delivery vans later in 2021.

Read more: MarketWatch

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In a virtual press conference recently, Dan Yergin, energy guru and vice-chair of IHS Markit recounted the stunned surprise that a Middle Eastern oil executive had recently shared with him upon traveling to California and seeing the plethora of Teslas on the road.

It was a foretelling sign, he said, one that spoke volumes not just about oil’s future but also about climate security. Could EV’s really displace demand for all that petroleum this executive was trying to sell?

Indeed, even the most oil-leveraged countries are now coming to terms with such future shock. “We are seeing the impact of climate change with the various extreme events: the Australian fires, the cyclones and the droughts,” says Dr. Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of the Ministry of Climate Change and the Environment for the United Arab Emirates, in an earlier interview with this reporter. “We can no longer pass this to future generations to deal with.”

The UAE, which just discovered 22 billion barrels of unconventional oil reserves, says that it is planning on a world with no oil — that it is investing in green energy projects domestically and in new technologies all over the world. The country is home to several solar plants, hosting one of the world’s largest: the Noor Abu Dhabi. It generates more than 1,100 megawatts of power.

Yes, “peak oil” and climate change are interrelated. Enter electric vehicles, which according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance will gain speed: it says that EVs are now 10% of the global passenger market. But that number will grow to 28% in 2030 and 40% in 2040. Why? National policies will favor decarbonization while the cost of batteries that power the cars will keep falling. The cost of EVs and cars with an internal combustion engine will even out in the mid-2020s, it says.

And China and Europe are where the growth will occur: 72% of all such cars by 2030. That’s because their governments are taking bold action to curb CO2 and to get folks to decarbonize their transportation. The United States, it adds, will fall a bit behind but it will catch up by 2030. UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company proudly proclaims that the country has to be ready to celebrate the sale of its last barrel of oil. Right now, renewables make up 10% of its generation portfolio.

Read more: Forbes

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Sales of electric vehicles have more than doubled in the last year while diesel purchases have plummeted by over half.

Analysis of official industry figures show 86,291 pure electric cars have been registered so far this year, up from 37,850 during 2019. Diesel sales dropped 58 per cent from 583,488 in 2019 to 246,389 this year.

In another dramatic change, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles eclipsed diesels for the first time last month. In November, 18,062 plug-ins were sold compared to 15,925 diesels, according to the RAC’s analysis of figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

The figures are a boost for the Prime Minister’s plan to ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and of plug-in hybrids from 2035.

But electric vehicles still account for just 0.3 per cent of the cars on Britain’s roads.

Sales website Auto Trader warns demand is five years behind what is needed for a 2030 ban to succeed with buyers put off by upfront costs and a lack of street charge points.

High upfront costs and a lack of chargers on residential roads have been blamed for stagnating demand, with EVs still considered an unnecessary luxury by many households.

The bosses of BMW and Honda Europe are among senior industry leaders who have criticised the 2030 ban as poorly thought-through.

Buyers are being put off by concerns over EV range and a lack of on-street charge points.

A third of households in Britain have no off-street parking, meaning a large proportion of the population has no easy access to a charger.

Buyers have also been put off by costs. Entry-level EVs are around £5,000 more expensive than equivalent petrol models, even with the Government’s £3,000 plug-in car grant taken into account.

However, the RAC said the latest EV sales figures are encouraging.

Read more: Daily Mail

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As more governments commit to shortening the deadlines on banning the sale of internal combustion vehicles, and with more and more manufacturers launching all-electric models across all price ranges, the market seems finally to be starting to change: interest in this type of vehicle in the UK has shot up by 500%, while sales across Europe have reached half a million units so far in 2020. It is increasingly common to have friends who have bought an electric car.

Tesla is now worth $500 billion dollars, while Volkswagen, which has built the largest production plant for electric vehicles in Europe, has started selling its ID.3, which has been the best-selling electric vehicle on the continent in October. Manufacturers such as GM and BMW are scaling up their ambitions in the electric segment, while 28 companies are launching ZETA, the Zero Emissions Transportation Association, a lobby with the main objective of creating the economic, social and political environment that will allow electric vehicles to account for 100% of sales in the United States by 2030.

In Europe, taking into account the composition of the grid, electric vehicles are already three times cleaner than their petrol equivalents. In California, not only are they not concerned about the number of electric vehicles skyrocketing, but they are being proposed as one of the solutions to the state’s energy production infrastructure problems. In fact, several manufacturers have already abandoned Donald Trump’s initiative that sought to soften California’s tough emissions legislation: what happens in California, the most important automotive market in the United States and one of the largest in the world, usually has a great influence on the auto industry.

Japan, which has recently declared a climate emergency, has also brought forward the date for the ban on the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles to 2030. This is causing concern in Australia, which also drives on the left, but has no car industry, and fears that if it does not keep in step, it could see its market for right-hand-drive fossil fuel vehicles severely undersupplied.

There is now tremendous competition within the technologies related to electric vehicles and batteries: a new stage in which the application of continuous improvements has made this type of vehicle the logical option for the future, also linked to the development of autonomous driving.

Read more: Forbes

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