Monthly Archives: January 2016

The Climate Pistol has fired so why aren’t we running?

January 9, 2016Energy and Climate Change, OpinionTrevor Larkum

There can be no complacency after the Paris talks. Hitting even the 1.5C target will need drastic, rapid action

With the climate talks in Paris now over, the world has set itself a serious goal: limit temperature rise to 1.5C. Or failing that, 2C. Hitting those targets is absolutely necessary: even the one-degree rise that we’ve already seen is wreaking havoc on everything from ice caps to ocean chemistry. But meeting it won’t be easy, given that we’re currently on track for between 4C and 5C. Our only hope is to decisively pick up the pace.

Severe Flooding, Against a Background of Wind Turbines: November 2012, Tyringham, Bucks. (Image: T. Larkum)

In fact, pace is now the key word for climate. Not where we’re going, but how fast we’re going there. Pace – velocity, speed, rate, momentum, tempo. That’s what matters from here on in. We know where we’re going now; no one can doubt that the fossil fuel age has finally begun to wane, and that the sun is now shining on, well, solar. But the question, the only important question, is: how fast.

Read more: The Guardian

Paris climate change deal signals end of fossil fuel era

January 8, 2016Energy and Climate Change, News, Reviews and CommentTrevor Larkum

The international climate deal agreed in Paris is a turning point in history which signals the end of the fossil fuel era, it has been claimed.

London Climate March - a carnival atmosphere (Image: T. Larkum) — London Climate March (Image: T. Larkum)

The final draft of the agreement has received a largely positive response from environmental and aid campaigners, experts and analysts, although there are concerns it does not go far enough to tackle climate change.

Emma Ruby-Sachs, acting executive director of campaign group Avaaz, said:

“If agreed, this deal will represent a turning point in history, paving the way for the shift to 100% clean energy that the world wants and the planet needs.”

Michael Jacobs, senior adviser for the New Climate Economy project, and former adviser to Gordon Brown, also described it as a historic turning point.

“Historians will see this as the turning point: the moment when the world started shifting decisively away from fossil fuels and towards clean and safe energy systems.

“Remarkably this effectively signals the end of the fossil fuel era. This is unquestionably a great success. But the work really starts now. These commitments now need to turn into policy, and policy into investment.”

Kumi Naidoo, executive director of Greenpeace International, which campaigns strongly against fossil fuel expansion, went further, saying:

“The wheel of climate action turns slowly, but in Paris it has turned. This deal puts the fossil fuel industry on the wrong side of history.”

We could be seeing the beginning of the end of cheap oil

January 7, 2016Energy and Climate Change, Oil, OpinionTrevor Larkum

Has oil become an unwanted commodity? Plunging prices suggest something is going on.

While diplomats in Paris hash out a legally binding accord to significantly curb greenhouse gas emissions, oil is trading at a seven-year low, closing Tuesday below $40 per barrel.

The price drop follows OPEC’s failure to put a cap on oil production last week. Energy analysts predict prices could go lower in the next 12 months, but Dan Dicker, an oil analyst with The Street and OilPrice.com, says we could be in for a wild ride that will drive oil prices back up — way up.

“I think there could be a change of four to five million barrels [a day] over the course of the next 22 or 23 months in terms of what comes off line in terms of supply and what gets added in terms of demand,” says Dicker, the author of “Shale Boom, Shale Bust: The Myth of Saudi America.” “It would mean a huge difference in the price of oil. In fact, I’m looking at prices in three digits as early as 2017.”

Dicker concedes that his hypothesis deviates sharply from other analysts who believes prices will stay low. He argues that the Saudis have reached a new limit when it comes to oil production.

“I think that they’re literally, and again I’m on the other side of this, as close to full production capabilities as they’re going to get,” he says. “They’re at a little more than 11 million barrels a day. We’ve talked about spare capacity for years with the Saudis, with a sort of a question mark on how much spare capacity they had. In other words, how much can the ultimately pump if they just wanted to open up the spigots full bore? This — 11 million barrels a day — has absolutely shocked the analysts from their predictions two, three, or four years ago. I think that the limits have really been reached.”

Over the next six to eight months, Dicker predicts that oil and gas prices will remain low, under $50 a barrel. In the long-term, other members of OPEC can increase production if they secure funding, including Iran and Iraq, but Dicker doesn’t find such a scenario possible.

“The potential there is huge,” he says. “But with all that’s going on there geopolitically, obviously that’s not a great bet to increase production two or three fold over the next three or four years.”

Source: PRI

ZEV Alliance sets huge zero-emission goal for 2050

January 7, 2016Electric Cars, Energy and Climate Change, News, Reviews and CommentTrevor Larkum

The International ZEV Alliance, an international group geared to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by spurring more electric vehicle sales, has used the United Nations’ COP21 climate-change conference in Paris to set a rather lofty goal.

The group wants to have all new cars sold within their jurisdictions to be emissions-free by 2050, according to Green Car Reports. The group includes eight US states, (California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont) along with Quebec, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the UK.

The Alliance was officially founded in September. At the time, it was determined that the group accounted for seven percent of global vehicle sales but also made up 38 percent of electric-vehicle sales, so these entities already appear to be the world leaders in the zero-emissions vehicle movement. The eight US states have been at it for a while, of course, joining up in May 2014 to state their collective goal to have 3.3 million electric vehicles on their roads by 2025. Those states and their Multi-State ZEV Action Plan account for almost one-fourth of US light-duty vehicle sales.

Of course, Norway always shoots high when it comes to zero-emissions transportation. Long known for its abundance in hydroelectricity and big-time plug-in vehicle incentives, that country is aiming to have all new cars emissions-free within the next decade.

Another group of US and non-US entities, including California, France’s Alsace region and parts of Holland, signed onto the Under 2 MOU agreement at COP21. Those members aim to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 to less than 20 percent of those in 1990.

Source: Autoblog

Electric vehicles are the future – there is no escaping it

January 7, 2016Electric Cars, Energy and Climate Change, News, Reviews and CommentTrevor Larkum

Ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) are becoming a more common sight on UK fleets, with this growth set to continue as manufacturers and companies aim to reduce CO2 emissions.

The latest Department for Transport (DfT) figures show that a total of 35,305 cars with CO2 emissions of 75g/km or below were registered at the end of June, compared with 12,200 on the same date last year.

Research from the latest Fleet200 – the UK’s biggest 200 fleets across 10 industry sectors – backs this up, with those organisations operating more hybrids and battery electric vehicles (EVs) than before.

But what does the future hold for fleets, and what are the implications for the UK’s road and power infrastructure?

We asked two of the country’s leading ULEV experts – Colin Herron, managing director of Zero Carbon Futures, and Denis Naberezhnykh, head of ultra-low emission vehicles for Transport Research Laboratory – for their views.

Grand promises of Paris climate deal undermined by squalid retrenchments

January 7, 2016Energy and Climate Change, OpinionTrevor Larkum

Until governments undertake to keep fossil fuels in the ground, they will continue to undermine agreement they have just made

London Climate March - passing the Palace of Westminster (Image: T. Larkum) — London Climate March (Image: T. Larkum)

By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.

Inside the narrow frame within which the talks have taken place, the draft agreement at the UN climate talks in Paris is a great success. The relief and self-congratulation with which the final text was greeted, acknowledges the failure at Copenhagen six years ago, where the negotiations ran wildly over time before collapsing. The Paris agreement is still awaiting formal adoption, but its aspirational limit of 1.5C of global warming, after the rejection of this demand for so many years, can be seen within this frame as a resounding victory. In this respect and others, the final text is stronger than most people anticipated.

Outside the frame it looks like something else. I doubt any of the negotiators believe that there will be no more than 1.5C of global warming as a result of these talks. As the preamble to the agreement acknowledges, even 2C, in view of the weak promises governments brought to Paris, is wildly ambitious. Though negotiated by some nations in good faith, the real outcomes are likely to commit us to levels of climate breakdown that will be dangerous to all and lethal to some. Our governments talk of not burdening future generations with debt. But they have just agreed to burden our successors with a far more dangerous legacy: the carbon dioxide produced by the continued burning of fossil fuels, and the long-running impacts this will exert on the global climate.

With 2C of warming, large parts of the world’s surface will become less habitable. The people of these regions are likely to face wilder extremes: worse droughts in some places, worse floods in others, greater storms and, potentially, grave impacts on food supply. Islands and coastal districts in many parts of the world are in danger of disappearing beneath the waves.

Read more: The Guardian

World leaders hail Paris climate deal as ‘major leap for mankind’

January 7, 2016Energy and Climate Change, News, Reviews and CommentTrevor Larkum

Almost 200 countries sign historic pledge to hold global temperatures to a maximum rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels

Climate March poster on the Underground (Image: T. Larkum)

A historic, legally binding climate deal that aims to hold global temperatures to a maximum rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, staving off the worst effects of catastrophic global warming, has been secured.

The culmination of more than 20 years of fraught UN climate talks has seen all countries agree to reduce emissions, promise to raise $100bn a year by 2020 to help poor countries adapt their economies, and accept a new goal of zero net emissions by later this century.

Formally adopted in Paris by 195 countries, the first universal climate deal will see an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels, the growth of renewable energy streams and powerful new carbon markets to enable countries to trade emissions and protect forests.

As the final text of the agreement was released, the French president, François Hollande, said:

“This is a major leap for mankind. The agreement will not be perfect for everyone, if everyone reads it with only their own interests in mind. We will not be judged on a clause in a sentence, but on the text as a whole. We will not be judged on a word, but on an act.”

Economist Lord Stern added:

“This is a historic moment, not just for us but for our children, our grandchildren and future generations. The Paris agreement is a turning point in the world’s fight against unmanaged climate change which threatens prosperity. It creates enormous opportunities as countries begin to accelerate along the path towards low-carbon economic growth.”

Read more: The Guardian

The Coming Electrification of Everything

January 6, 2016Electric Cars, Energy and Climate Change, Opinion, Solar Power, Wind PowerTrevor Larkum

At Obvious Ventures, we believe stored electricity, increasingly derived from renewable sources, will entirely replace fossil fuels as the preferred method to power everything in our lives.

From cars to scooters to boats to locomotives to industrial equipment, we are in the midst of a transition that will electrify everything previously driven by combustion.

There are two simple reasons we’ll make this change sooner than most people think. First, electrically powered things just work better. And people want things that work better. The second reason is really just a piece of the first. “Better” increasingly means “better forever.” That is, not just better in the moment for that use, but also better for our surroundings, our health, and the health of our planet.

But, at least for the short term, our climate will be served not simply by environmental motivations, but by the same relentless human force that created it: the desire for more, faster, better. Ever-better technology will lead consumers, rather than idealists, to drive this electricity evolution.

Why now? Key trends emerging only in recent years have created the foundation for this evolution.

Nissan signs up to smart grid scheme

January 5, 2016Electric Cars, Energy and Climate Change, Energy Storage, Leaf, News, Reviews and Comment, NissanTrevor Larkum

Nissan has joined up with energy supplier ENEL to trial the idea of ‘Smart Grids’ using electric cars. The two companies will work together to set up innovative vehicle-to-grid systems that allow owners to use their car as a movable energy hub – using, storing or returning energy to the grid.

The deal has been announced during the Nissan-Renault Alliance’s support of the COP21 climate change conference in Paris. The leading EV manufacturers have supplied a fleet of 200 EVs to shuttle delegates around the conference.

Based in a large number of European and north and central American countries, ENEL is Italy’s largest energy provider. Nissan’s partnership with the company will see smart grid trials begin in Europe. This dovetails with the recent announcement that Nissan has also teamed up with power management specialists Eaton to reuse old EV batteries.

The smart grid concept sees EV owners avoid peak tariffs for household energy, with the car able to supply either the home or national grid with power during high demand periods such as evenings after normal working hours. This will give the Leaf owners a greater degree of financial freedom, and they can then either recharge their vehicle at off peak times in the early hours of the morning, or maintain enough charge to be able to drive to their workplace and charge there.

Denmark will be the first country to trial the smart grid project, with plans already in place to roll it out to Germany, the Netherlands and other northern European countries.

VW scandal pushes diesel cars into the slow lane

January 4, 2016Audi, Electric Cars, Energy and Climate Change, News, Reviews and Comment, Pollution, VolkswagenTrevor Larkum

Buyers are turning away from all diesel models, and cleaning up the technology will be a long and expensive business

The 2016 VW e-Golf is a spirited runabout that makes almost no compromises in terms of performance, comfort or cargo space (Image: Volkswagen of America Inc.)

Since the Volkswagen emissions test scandal in September, it is not just the German carmaker that has suffered a blow to its image. Diesel automotive technology also faces a battle to regain public trust.

There are already some signs of demand for diesel cars shrinking since VW was forced to apologise for installing “cheat devices” in 11 million vehicles. In Germany, Europe’s largest car market, demand for diesel cars was down 11% by the end of October compared with the average level this year, according to data from car buying website MeinAuto. The decline for VW diesel cars was even steeper, down 14%.

“The slump in demand has surprised us,” said MeinAuto’s managing director, Alexander Brugge. “It’s interesting that it’s not only VW customers who are reluctant to buy diesel vehicles but customers of other brands, too.”

In the UK, official registration numbers of for diesel cars seem to be holding up. Diesel made up 51% of new car sales in both October and November, according to Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). That is in line with last year and above this year’s average of 48%. However, there could still be a decline, because of the three-month wait between car order and delivery.

VW chief executive Matthias Müller has promised that the company will increase spending on alternative technologies such as electric and hybrid vehicles by €100m next year.

Read more: The Guardian