Should climate risk be assessed in the same way as risk of nuclear war or pandemic?

When assessing the risk of serious climate change there is not enough focus on the worst-case scenarios that could trigger societal and economic collapse. That’s the conclusion of a major new report assessing the risks posed climate change, commissioned by the UK Foreign Office.

Climate Change: A Risk Assessment argues climate risk should be assessed in the same way as risks to national security or public health – considering the worst-case scenario first, and working backwards to avoid that risk coming to pass.

For example, when assessing the risk of a global pandemic scientists and politicians assess the risk of a worst-case scenario and plan accordingly. Similarly, planning for nuclear conflict has long started by addressing the risk of the worst case scenario. Conversely, most assessments of the impact of climate change tend to focus on the impact of two-, three- or four-degree rises in global temperature – when the worst-case long term scenario is closer to a nine or 10-degree rise.

Read more: Business Green