No doubt — we don’t know how this coronavirus thing is going to play out.

We don’t know what the health consequences will end up being, and we don’t know what the short-term, mid-term, and long-term economic results will be. So much depends on what we do today, and then on what we do tomorrow, and then on what we do the day after that. If I’ve lived through any acute societal wild card in my life, this is it. (Climate change is clearly a chronic, long-term wild card.)

So, yes, it is entirely presumptuous to consider and discuss how the transition to electric vehicles (the “EV revolution” as many of us like to call it) will change from the coronavirus crisis. But I couldn’t help myself. Let’s roll through some possibilities.

Bankruptcies

This is one of the big questions that jumps out first. Depending on how long the crisis goes on, and depending on economic stimulus packages that result, consumers may or may not delay that next car purchase or lease — or SUV/truck purchase or lease. We know that auto companies live by a bit of a thread, since it seems like only yesterday that we bailed a couple of them out in the US after a different economic crisis.

Whether in the USA, Germany, or the home of another auto company, if things get bad enough, Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler, or some other automaker may be looking for how the government can keep them alive. If this happens, whether the government requires them to or not, it seems like it would only be sensible to use the restructuring in order to transition more quickly into electrification. Cut off 20th century assets that are going nowhere, reorganize and rebuild around becoming an electric leader, say goodbye to dead limbs that make it hard to transition.

We’re yet to see it play out, but something that comes to mind is what Volkswagen Group has been doing as a result of the diesel emissions crisis it spent years cultivating. Volkswagen walked itself into a corporate disaster by cheating incessantly on emissions testing, but the result once it became a major scandal was that Volkswagen had to dramatically shift course and steer toward a full electrification strategy — or got to do so. The wisest executives and managers saw the situation as an opportunity more than a crisis.

Ford, GM, and others appear to also be taking electrification seriously, but as we’ve explained numerous times, this is a wicked tightrope walk they must complete. They have to transition quickly enough that they ride the wave of the overall market transition rather than getting left behind, but if they transition “too quickly,” due to their vast fossil-related assets, investments, factories, and executive/manager expertise, they will crash and burn. Some auto company CEOs have admitted that outright. Related to that, you have the problem of the Osborne effect to surf through.

The opportunity arises when the auto company’s house is burning down for other reasons and the burn can be guided in a visionary way.

Read more: Clean Technica

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Geneva Motor Show decided to cancel this year’s event because of the coronavirus, but we are still going to see a few of the electric cars that were going to be unveiled at the show.

As we previously reported, a few electric vehicles were scheduled to be unveiled in Geneva next week.

However, the organization behind the auto show decided to cancel the event due to the coronavirus threat.

Maurice Turrettini, Chairman of the Foundation Board, said in a statement:

“We regret this situation, but the health of all participants is our and our exhibitors’ top priority. This is a case of force majeure and a tremendous loss for the manufacturers who have invested massively in their presence in Geneva. However, we are convinced that they will understand this decision.”

Several automakers have confirmed plans to still unveil their electric vehicles through online presentations.

BMW is set to unveil its the BMW i4, its next electric car.

The German automaker said in a statement:

“The BMW Group will carry out the program planned for Geneva including the world premiere of the BMW Concept i4 at a digital press conference with CEO Oliver Zipse in Munich at the originally scheduled time (Tuesday, March 3, 2020, 8.15 a.m. CET) and broadcast it via live stream. Further details concerning the live broadcast will follow as soon as possible.”

Fiat-Chrysler was set to unveil its next-generation Fiat 500e electric car and it confirmed today that it didn’t have a plan in place to unveil the vehicle without the show, but the automaker said that it was looking into a way to unveil the car.

Read more: Electrek

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EV anxiety remains, but the switch to electric power is gathering momentum. And, what’s more, you don’t have to pay a premium and buy new

Never mind all the new electric cars arriving this year, could 2020 be the year people start buying used ones? It’s an important question since whether people are prepared to buy used electric cars and for how much will help determine how successful the new models will or won’t be.

Simply put, it’s used EVs that will provide nervous buyers with their first, more affordable experience of an electric car that one day may give them the confidence to purchase a new one. It’s used EVs that will determine how much people pay each month for a new model on a PCP. And it’s used EVs that, if they sell easily and for a profit, will give dealers the confidence to market and support the new models.

Fortunately, it looks as though EVs may have turned a corner. Consumer interest is increasing as new models with longer ranges arrive, the charging infrastructure expands and city centres begin penalising fossil-fuel cars. Sales of new and used models are growing while, crucially, the residual values of used EVs are, for the most part, stabilising and even rising in one or two cases, albeit from a very low base.

Leading auction house Shoreham Vehicle Auctions believes the market has reached a “tipping point of acceptance”. It cites the example of a 2015-reg Nissan Leaf Acenta with 20,000 miles that in 2017 was valued at £8850. Last year, the same model with the same mileage but registered in 2017 was, it says, worth £11,000.

It’s not a universal trend, though. CAP, a valuation guide, says the EV sector is a two-speed market with cheaper used EVs such as the Peugeot iOn and Renault Zoe rising in value, while premium models such as the Jaguar I-Pace, Audi E-tron and Tesla Model X are still falling.

“There is a growing market for a used EV bought for use as a second car for city commutes and we expect to see demand increase as clean air zones are rolled out and new models are launched,” says Chris Plumb, senior valuations editor at Cap HPI. “On the other hand, the high price of new premium models is yet to translate into higher used prices.”

Read more: Autocar

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Following Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s first budget, we look at whether it was good or bad news for drivers…

The government has announced new funding for electric vehicle charging, pothole filling and road improvements as part of its annual March budget.

In his first budget as Chancellor, Rishi Sunak announced a new package worth £27 billion for strategic road improvements over the next five years, including an extra £2.5 billion to repair 50 million potholes over the next five years. The Chancellor dubbed the announcement as representing the largest investment ever in the transport sector.

Below, we look at each of the Chancellor’s other announcements, and how they affect motorists and car buyers.

Electric vehicle charging

The Chancellor announced a new £500m funding pot, to be spent over the next five years, to help grow the UK’s rapid charging network for electric cars. The intention is that drivers will never be more than 30 miles away from a rapid charging point. The fund is primarily designed to cover the cost of businesses installing fast charging points on their premises.

According to charging point locator Zap Map, there are currently close to 18,000 charging points in more than 11,000 locations across the UK.

Plug-in vehicle grant

In addition, the current grant for those buying an electric vehicle, due to run out at the end of this year, has been extended to 2023 in a move worth £403 million. However, the current grant of up to £3500 will be cut to £3000 on orders placed from 12 March. In addition, the grant is no longer available on cars costing more than £50,000.

Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders had wanted the government to go one step further by abolishing VAT on electric and plug-in hybrid cars. The group said that this would increase sales of such cars to just under one million by 2024, resulting in the saving of 1.2 million tonnes of CO2.

So far in 2020, more than 6500 purely electric vehicles have been sold – a rise of more than 200% on the same period in 2019. However, such cars still represent just 2.9% of total cars sold. More than 160,000 buyers have made use of the grant since it was introduced in 2011.

Elsewhere, the budget confirmed that electric vehicles will be exempt from the so called Expensive Car Supplement, which can add up to £1600 in tax over five years on cars costing more than £40,000.

Read more: What Car

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Eight years ago, Fleet News produced a supplement boldly called “2012: The Year of The Electric Car”.

While there was growing evidence at that time that the technology was about to break through into the mainstream, it turned out we were – as is sometimes the case – ahead of our time.

However, current political, environmental and technological circumstances suggest that with the dawn of the new decade, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will now really start to gain a firm foothold in the UK fleet sector.

Part of the reason for this should be that the adoption of BEVs also has the potential to save fleets thousands of pounds per vehicle each year.

This is why it is important that organisations look beyond the P11D price or leasing cost premium that BEVs carry over petrol or diesel vehicles to look at wholelife costs, says Helen Lees, head of electric vehicles and connected services at Groupe PSA.

“We are trying to focus our customers’ minds on the total cost of ownership of EVs,” she says.

“Even if you have to pay more up front, or even if your monthly rental is a little higher, the reduced running cost through electricity is much cheaper than petrol or diesel; there is a reduced service, maintenance and repair (SMR) cost from the fact there are fewer mechanical working parts so there is less to replace on every service, and that can change the perception of pricing in the customers’ minds.”

Read more: Fleet News

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