2016: a year of living dangerously

As oil prices fall further, China slows and Brazil risks collapse, cracks will be papered over and the scene set for a new implosion

The sun sets on drilling (Image: Pexels)

The sun sets on drilling (Image: Pexels)

Economic forecasting is a mug’s game. One thing that has been learned from the financial crisis and Great Recession is that even those equipped with the most sophisticated models get it wrong, sometimes spectacularly.

So it is with both humility and trepidation that I will try to fulfil a promise made last week and make predictions for what is going to happen in 2016. In all honesty, the future is unknowable and anybody who says otherwise is lying.

So, with that caveat, here’s what I think might happen. At some point, a recovery built on booming asset prices, weak growth in earnings and rising personal debt is going to lead to another huge financial crisis – but not in the next 12 months.

Instead, 2016 will be a year of living dangerously, papering over cracks and buying time before all the old problems resurface.

Read more: The Guardian

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