More electric vehicles were registered than diesel cars for the second month in a row in July, according to car industry figures.
It is the third time battery electric vehicles have overtaken diesel in the past two years.
However, new car registrations fell by almost a third, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.
The industry was hit by the “pingdemic” of people self-isolating and a continuing chip shortage.
In July, battery electric vehicle registrations again overtook diesel cars, but registrations of petrol vehicles far outstripped both.
Cars can be registered when they are sold, but dealers can also register cars before they go on sale on the forecourt.
People are starting to buy electric vehicles more as the UK tries to move towards a lower carbon future.
The UK plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, and hybrids by 2035.
That should mean that most cars on the road in 2050 are either electric, use hydrogen fuel cells, or some other non-fossil fuel technology.
In July there was “bumper growth” in the sale of plug-in cars, the SMMT said, with battery electric vehicles taking 9% of sales. Plug-in hybrids reached 8% of sales, and hybrid electric vehicles were at almost 12%.
This is compared with a 7.1% market share for diesel, which saw 8,783 registrations.
In June, battery electric vehicles also outsold diesel, and this also happened in April 2020.
July is normally a relatively quiet month in the car trade. Buyers at this time of year are often waiting until the September number plate change before investing in new wheels.
But even so, the latest figures illustrate clearly the major changes going on in the industry.
More electric cars were registered than diesels, and by a significant margin, for the second month in a row.
That’s a consequence both of the continued catastrophic fall in demand for diesel and increased sales of electric cars.
Over the year to date, diesel still has a small edge, but on current trends that won’t last.
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The current generation ZOE is expected to continue only until around 2024.
According to Luca de Meo, Renault CEO, the ZOE will not live to see a next-generation as the company is switching to a new all-electric platform.
So far, the Renault ZOE was the best-selling all-electric model from Renault and one of the best-selling models in Europe.
However, the ZOE platform is getting old. The car was introduced around 2012, and since then upgraded several times (including a major refresh in 2019) in terms of new, higher capacity batteries, more powerful electric motors and most recently a DC fast charging option.
Our data indicates that the company has so far sold more than 300,000 ZOE (almost entirely in Europe).
Renault ZOE Van (Image: Renault)
Despite that, the ZOE will be replaced by a new electric car – the upcoming all-new Renault R5 around 2023/2024. It’s interesting, especially since in January we read that the ZOE will not be replaced.
Renault’s plan is to switch to the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance’s new CMF-EV platform to become more competitive. New solutions are expected to lower the costs quite significantly (maybe even by a third compared to ZOE, according to some reports).
The first CMF-EV-based Renault to be the all-electric Megane. The new wave of Renault’s BEVs will include also Renault 4, Renault 5 and performance-oriented Alpine models.
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Executives at Toyota had a moment of inspiration when the company first developed the Prius. That moment, apparently, has long since passed.
The Prius was the world’s first mass-produced hybrid car, years ahead of any competitors. The first model, a small sedan, was classic Toyota—a reliable vehicle tailor-made for commuting. After a major redesign in 2004, sales took off. The Prius’ Kammback profile was instantly recognizable, and the car’s combination of fuel economy and practicality was unparalleled. People snapped them up. Even celebrities seeking to burnish their eco-friendly bona fides were smitten with the car. Leonardo DiCaprio appeared at the 2008 Oscars in one.
As the Prius’ hybrid technology was refined over the years, it started appearing in other models, from the small Prius c to the three-row Highlander. Even the company’s luxury brand, Lexus, hybridized several of its cars and SUVs.
For years, Toyota was a leader in eco-friendly vehicles. Its efficient cars and crossovers offset emissions from its larger trucks and SUVs, giving the company a fuel-efficiency edge over some of its competition. By May 2012, Toyota had sold 4 million vehicles in the Prius family worldwide.
The next month, Tesla introduced the Model S, which dethroned Toyota’s hybrid as the leader in green transportation. The new car proved that long-range EVs, while expensive, could be both practical and desirable. Battery advancements promised to slash prices, eventually bringing EVs to price parity with fossil-fuel vehicles.
Toyota Prius Plug-in hybrid 2017 (image: Toyota)
But Toyota misunderstood what Tesla represented. While Toyota invested in Tesla, it saw the startup not as a threat but rather a bit player that could help Toyota meet its EV mandates. In some ways, that view was justified. For the most part, the two didn’t compete in the same segments, and Toyota’s worldwide volume dwarfed that of the small US manufacturer. Besides, hybrids were just a stopgap until Toyota’s hydrogen fuel cells were ready. At that point, the company thought, hydrogen vehicles’ long range and quick refueling would make EVs obsolete.
Yet, Toyota hadn’t picked up on the subtle shift that was occurring. It’s true that hybrids were a bridge to cleaner fuels, but Toyota was overestimating the length of that bridge. Just as Blackberry dismissed the iPhone, Toyota dismissed Tesla and EVs. Blackberry thought the world would need physical keyboards for many more years. Toyota thought the world would need gasoline for several more decades. Both were wrong.
In tethering itself to hybrids and betting its future on hydrogen, Toyota now finds itself in an uncomfortable position. Governments around the world are moving to ban fossil-fuel vehicles of any kind, and they’re doing so far sooner than Toyota anticipated. With EV prices dropping and charging infrastructure expanding, fuel-cell vehicles are unlikely to be ready in time.
In a bid to protect its investments, Toyota has been strenuously lobbying against battery-electric vehicles. But is it already too late?
Hydrogen dead end
Having spent the last decade ignoring or dismissing EVs, Toyota now finds itself a laggard in an industry that’s swiftly preparing for an electric—not just electrified—transition.
Sales of Toyota’s fuel-cell vehicles haven’t lit the world on fire—the Mirai continues to be a slow seller, even when bundled with thousands of dollars’ worth of hydrogen, and it’s unclear if its winsome-but-slow redesign will help. Toyota’s forays into EVs have been timid. Initial efforts focused on solid-state batteries that, while lighter and safer than existing lithium-ion batteries, have proven challenging to manufacture cost-effectively, much like fuel cells. Last month, the company announced that it would release more traditional EV models in the coming years, but the first one won’t be available until the end of 2022.
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ELECTRIC cars are on average more cost effective than petrol and diesel vehicles, according to a new study.
It found that over a seven-year period of owning a car, electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf, Volkswagen ID and the MG ZS EV are more cost effective than internal combustion engine equivalents. This is due to lower annual running costs, according to the LV= ‘Electric Car Cost Index’.
The ‘Electric Car Cost Index’ explores purchase price, tax, insurance, fuel and maintenance costs for nine electric cars vs their petrol/diesel equivalent to establish the total cost of ownership.
According to the Index, savings driven by average annual running costs were around 49 percent or £1,306 cheaper than petrol and diesel cars.
Seven out of nine electric cars evaluated offer better value over a four-year lease, including the Kia e-Niro, the Nissan Leaf and the Volkswagen e-UP.
The largest saving over a four-year lease is the Nissan Leaf compared to the Ford Focus ecoboost, which sees over £7,000 in savings.
BMW iX3
Despite its popularity, the Tesla Model 3 would actually be more expensive to run over four years in comparison to the BMW 320i, with losses of £741.
Alex Borgnis, Head of Motor Underwriting at LV= General Insurance, commented: “With this new Electric Car Cost Index we’re really trying to show, in the most comprehensive way, how the costs breakdown for people considering taking the plunge and making an electric model their next car.
“While the initial purchase will seem intimidating for some, once you break down the monthly costs, especially on a lease or PCP, and then throw in the lower running costs each year, suddenly it becomes something that provides great value over the course of the ownership period.
“You really don’t need to remortgage to get yourself on the electric car ladder.”
The savings on electric cars are heavily driven by lower average annual running costs – £1,304 compared to £2,610 for a petrol or diesel car.
This means that electric car drivers save an average of £109 a month, with savings extending further as they require less maintenance and have a longer life span.
For cars compared over a seven-year ownership, drivers could save more than £13,000 with an MG ZS EV rather than a Seat Ateca.
However, big losses can also be made on electric cars with a £8,105 loss when comparing the Renault Zoe GT Line and the Renault Clio.
Dr Euan McTurk, Consultant Battery Electrochemist at Plug Life Consulting spoke of his own experiences and savings when using an electric car.
He said: “Having driven electric cars for the past ten years, these results are not in the least bit surprising.
“My own electric car saves me £800 per year in fuel, tax and maintenance vs even the most efficient hybrid on the road.
“Comparing it to an equivalent, 5-seater family car, that saving is nearer £1,300 per year.
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Some electric vehicles (EVs) are cheaper over a seven year-period than a petrol or diesel alternative, according to research conducted by LV General Insurance.
The researchers examined the purchase, financing and running costs for nine popular EV models and their petrol and diesel equivalents.
They found that three of the nine EVs: Nissan Leaf, WV ID3 and MG ZS EV were cheaper.
The MG ZS EV had the biggest long-term savings – £13,316 on outright purchase over seven years, £5,772 via a standard lease agreement over four years and £2,320 via a standard PCP arrangement over three years.
The savings on EVs is heavily driven by lower annual running costs. With EV drivers saving an average of £109 per month.
Additionally, with electric cars traditionally having a longer life span and requiring less maintenance, the savings can be even bigger.
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Rachel Maclean, Minister for the Future of Transport and Decarbonisation, has dropped a fresh hint that the Government intents to scrap grants to help drivers buy expensive electric vehicles.
With the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars just eight-and-a-half years away, driver purchases are soon to be limited to battery-powered models only.
The high price of electric models remains one of the key stumbling blocks preventing motorists buying them in larger numbers today.
However, despite this, the Government in March slashed the Plug-in Car Grant, reducing both the subsidy amount by £500 to £2,500 and eligibility for only models priced up to £35,000 when it had previous been available for those up to £50,000.
In a recent interview with Autocar, Mclean defended the decision to reduce the grant – and said its availability would be kept under under review.
The grant was first launched in 2011 and offered up to £5,000 off the price of new plug-in vehicles.
In the prevailing decade, the grant amount and qualifying vehicle types has been frequently adjusted, with the latest changes coming just months ago.
The move was lambasted by industry insiders and vehicle manufacturers at the time, with Mike Hawes, chief executive at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, described the decision as the ‘wrong move at the wrong time’.
He said the government had risked putting the UK ‘even further behind other markets’ in terms of vehicle supply and said it sent the ‘wrong message’ to consumers’ who might have been considering buying a greener vehicle.
Ford of Britain chairman, Graham Hoare, said it was a ‘disappointing’ step that was ‘not conducive to supporting the zero emissions future we all desire’ while RAC head of roads policy Nicholas Lyes criticised MPs for making a decision that risked ‘people holding onto their older, more polluting vehicles for longer’.
Q4 e-tron (Image: audi.co.uk)
However, Maclean, speaking exclusively to Autocar magazine, defended the actions.
She said it was right for the Government to target grants only towards lower-priced electric vehicles because ‘that’s where people are less likely to be able to fund the cost out of their own pocket entirely’.
The move means that not a single Tesla vehicle qualifies for the scheme, nor does Ford’s new Mustang Mach-e, which is priced from £40,270 in the UK.
In fact, fewer than 30 electric cars on sale today now qualify for the scheme – you can find out which ones are eligible in our full report.
In the interview, Maclean also hinted that the days of the grant could be numbered, with the prospect of the incentive being scrapped completely.
The Government’s Road to Zero strategy in 2018 first stated that as the market became ‘better established and more competitive, the need for direct government financial support will decrease’.
It added: ‘We therefore expect to deliver a managed exit from the grant in due course and to continue to support the uptake of ultra low emission vehicles through other measures.’
Maclean – who owns an electric Jaguar i-Pace, which costs £65,000 and has never been eligible for the plug-in car grant – reiterated that statement to Autocar, saying: ‘I think it’s right to keep on looking at that [the future of the scheme], because ultimately we need to make sure we’re not using government money to help people buy cars who could have afforded them anyway.
‘One of our concerns is to make this an equitable transition for everyone, and of course at the moment electric cars are a bit more expensive – although if you factor in the overall cost of ownership, they will be on a parity soon.’
The Department for Transport referred us to their plug-in car grant delivery plan when we approached the government agency for comment.
The plan says: ‘We have been clear since 2018 that we intend to reduce the plug-in car grant over time.’
It adds a final commitment statement, saying: ‘We will continue to fund the plug-in car grant until at least 2022/23.’
Hydrogen and synthetic fuels will play a part to decarbonise transport – but NOT for passenger cars
In the interview, Maclean also suggested that hydrogen and synthetic e-fuels will play a part in decarbonising transport, but they will more likely be adopted for other vehicle types away from passenger cars.
‘The truth about hydrogen is that it’s very expensive to produce,’ the transport minister explained.
She added that the government will produce a hydrogen strategy very soon, but suggested it would be for decarbonising other vehicle types, including heavy goods vehicles, planes and ships.
Maclean added that synthetic fuels, like Porsche’s e-Fuel currently being developed in Chile, will also have ‘a role to play’ in driving down emissions, but explained it would more likely be used for the aviation and maritime industry.
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When Henry Ford started to build his first car assembly line, horse dung was still littering the streets. What he invented in 1913 was not a new technology. Ford understood that mass production would mean the end of cars as a luxury item. 10 years on, motor cars had become accessible to most working people in the US. With the European Commission proposing to go to 100% zero emission cars sales from 2035, flanked by a 55% CO2 cut for new cars in 2030, we are about to witness another Henry Ford moment. This time in Europe – and with electric cars.
To meet our climate goals and be at zero in 2050, the last new car (or van) with any CO2 emitting engine – be it gas, diesel or hybrid – should be sold no later than 2035. But it is not just a climate essential, it is an industrial necessity too. Major economies such as the UK and Canada and even large carmakers such as VW all plan to go 100% electric by that date. The EU cannot afford to lag behind in this global race to zero emissions, and the current proposal will ensure all EU member states and carmakers transition on time.
The trajectory to get there matters. The 55% CO2 target means half of cars sold in 2030 across the EU will be battery electric (less if some of them are hybrids). This is considerably less than the two-thirds battery electric sales needed to be on a cost-effective path to full electric by 2035. Many current loopholes remain, such as CO2 credits for things like efficient lights or more lenient targets for heavier cars. So while better than the current target, the 55% goal will be less than that in reality.
Ford Mustang Mach-E (Image: Ford.co.uk)
On costs and volumes…
Produced in small numbers – just enough to allow car makers meet the CO2 targets until now – electric cars are still expensive. Carmakers need to move to mass production to drive costs down, just as Henry Ford did with petrol cars at the beginning of the last century. Except the conveyor belts of the 1910s have been replaced by platforms dedicated to EVs and battery gigafactories. Analysis shows that if we continue to ramp up electric car volumes, these will be cheaper to buy than petrol in just six years time.
That requires increasing the CO2 targets from 2025 onwards – not only in 2030 – to make them accessible and affordable to all Europeans from Porto to Poznań. Regrettably the Commission has only increased the 2030 target, meaning little progress in the next 9 years. Higher retail prices, slower uptake of charging infrastructure, and worse, supply from outside Europe will dominate if domestic supply is insufficient.
Some electric cars are more equal than others
But what electric cars will Europeans buy? We have the real deal: battery electric. And we have a transitional solution: plug-in hybrids, that in reality are driven on a petrol engine most of the time but tout low CO2 emissions on paper. Europe is where most of these “fake electrics” are sold today because they offer easy compliance with the current CO2 standards.
By not reforming the way credits are given to plug-in hybrid cars until 2030, the Commission has decided to continue over-rewarding them for another decade – way longer than their transitional status justifies. This is not just a question of climate credibility as many emit 3-4 times their official CO2 results, but also brings into question our regulatory standing. Europe is still living the aftermath of the Dieselgate emissions scandal with major carmakers still being fined for colluding to delay cleaner vehicles. There is no place for fake climate solutions: that means no hybrids after 2035, and no bad hybrids already today.
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IEA analysis offers hope for climate action but says inflated oil price may slow global economic recovery from Covid-19
Rising oil prices could help speed climate action by accelerating the shift to electric vehicles, but would come at the expense of the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the global energy watchdog.
The world’s demand for crude surged by an average of 3.2m barrels a day (b/d) in June compared with the previous month but the return of oil production has failed to keep pace, triggering a steady rise in market prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that oil prices, which climbed by two-thirds this year to highs of $77 a barrel earlier this month, could climb higher and lead to market volatility unless big oil producers pump more barrels.
Dacia Spring 2021 (Image: Dacia.co.uk)
“While prices at these levels could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and help accelerate energy transitions, they could also put a drag on the economic recovery, particularly in emerging and developing countries,” the IEA said.
US drivers are already facing record high prices to fill up their tanks due to rising oil market prices. The price per gallon reached an all-time high of $3.14 on Monday, and analysts have warned that the price could climb to $5 a gallon.
As a result, the cheaper price of running an electric vehicle may encourage more motorists to make the switch sooner than planned, boosting efforts to cut emissions from transport. But higher fuel prices could also stoke cost inflation across the global economy, particularly in developing countries.
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Last August included an exciting day with the arrival of my first electric car. From an early age I took an interest in cars and in particular their internal-combustion engines. I never expected to see a competing automotive propulsion technology in my lifetime.
At the Frankfurt Motor Show in 2009, Tesla Inc. stunned the world with a prototype of the car that would eventually become the Model S. The first electric car that looked like a car, not a glorified golf cart or something from a Sci-Fi movie set.
In one fell swoop, Tesla silenced all critics with a car that had the style, poise, and range to be anyone’s daily driver. Introduced to the public in June of 2012, by 2016 the P100D version of the Model S boasted a range of over 300 miles and enough horsepower to turn the standing start quarter mile at over 120 miles per hour, making it one of the most powerful mass-produced cars ever made.
The key technology that made the Model S possible is a lithium ion — or Li-ion — battery, a technology that’s been around for years powering laptop computers and cell phones and other devices that benefit from power dense batteries. The Model S became a reality because Tesla had the vision to see all the pieces of a modern electric vehicle put together with 1995 technology, and the audacity to take on the worldwide automotive industry.
Tesla showroom in Milton Keynes (Image: T. Larkum)
Gas cars by default
The fact is the IC, the internal-combustion engine, was never the best propulsion device for a car, it was simply the only propulsion device that 19th century technology had to offer that provided the power and range to meet consumer demand.
The electric motor was always the best propulsion device, but the best electric energy storage at the time (lead-acid batteries) didn’t have anywhere near the energy density needed to compete with IC engines for range. Internal combustion won the day and went on to become the dominant — and then the only — propulsion device for cars for over 100 years.
Internal-combustion engine development progressed in every decade garnering significant research and development budgets. The 130-year effort to develop IC technology for vehicles showed the ingenuity and perseverance that determined people can put forward when challenged. Starting in the 19th century with noisy, smelly and inefficient engines that required constant maintenance, engineers plied their craft to make modern IC engines quiet, power dense, reasonably efficient and remarkably reliable.
Yet all that progress is easily eclipsed with a modern EV.
Future arrives EVs produce zero tailpipe emissions, have significantly fewer moving parts, are as reliable as your refrigerator, and operate at a fraction of the cost of an IC-powered car. EVs don’t require multi-speed transmissions or a reversing gear. To go in reverse, the electric motor simply spins backwards.
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Sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) hit 19,842 in June, beating the 15,027 sales of diesel vehicles recorded in the month.
The BEV sales represent a 122.9% increase compared with June 2020, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
It’s led to BEVs securing 10.7% of the market share in June 2021, compared with 6.1% in June 2020. In comparison, diesel took home an 8.1% market share. It’s not the first time BEVs have overtaken diesel sales, with April 2021 – a month in which diesel sales took a nosedive as a result of the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown – seeing BEV sales represent 31.8% of the market share, with more sold than diesel cars for the first time.
BMW iX3
Combined, last month BEVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) accounted for 17.2% of new vehicles in the month, totaling 31,981 sales.
New car sales in June were up year-on-year as a whole to 186,128, a jump of 28%. However, when compared with the previous decade average, monthly registrations were down by 16.4%.
Looking at 2021 to date, there have been 73,893 BEV sales compared to 30,957 at the same point in 2020. Market share has risen from 4.7% to 8.1%.
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